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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Next portion of a negative on US fundamental data put pressure upon dollar.

11:47 10/25/2007

 

The euro has practically restored its positions after recent correction. The next portion of a negative on fundamental data over the USA put pressure upon dollar.

 

In September existing home sales in the USA were down 8.0 % up to 5.04 million units against August value revised downwardly 5.48 million, and below the average forecast of 5.30 million.

 

NAR - National Association of Realtors consider effects of crediting crisis, which began in August as a principal cause of such result. The ratio of unsold houses made 10.5, that became the maximal parameter since 1999.

Volumes of the houses in sales increased by 0.4 % up to 4.399 million. Average price of the house made $211,700 against $224,400 in August, having dipped by 5.6 % m/m and 4.2 % y/y.

 

Data on durable goods orders in the USA in September decreased by 1,7 % to 214,53 billion dollars, the US Department of Commerce informed. Data for August were revised up to -5,3 % from -4,9 % as it was informed earlier. Economists expected rise in durable goods orders by 1,5 % in September. Less defense and vessels orders in September grew by 0,4 % - basic parameter of capital investments of the companies.

 

Orders for the transport equipment in September fell by 6,3 %. Orders for commercial air vessels were up 18,2 %, but orders for cars and spare parts to them in September dipped by 2,9 %.

 

Orders for air vessels for military aircraft in September reduced by 37,3 %.

 

Less transport equipment orders in September rose by 0,3 %. Deliveries of durable goods fell by 2,0 % in September. The volume of back orders, being an indicator of the future demand, increased by 1,1 %. Inventory holdings were up 0,4 %.

 

Having such negative indicators the market casts the doubts on that at FOMC meeting which takes place next week FRS will not be made to reduce the federal funds rate.

 

Risks of stagnation of the US economy prevail over risks of inflation. However the Federal Reserve faces a difficult choice, last downturn of the rate by 0,50% caused already strong outflow of the funds from the US stock market and as it is known inflow of investments balances trade deficit of the USA with China, Japan, EU and other developed countries.

 

Eurodollar quotations again approached historical tops, in expectation of FOMC decision on the rate, however the psychological level - 1,4350 will be hardly passed before the publication of this decision. Tomorrow traders will, most likely, adhere to wait and see policy as the main events in the market will happen on Monday.

While we remain outside the market.

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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