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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Deep correction in favor of dollar "departed this life", new rise in European currencies is expected ...

11:47 10/24/2007

Yesterday's publications of economical statistics could not add positive to dollar money-box. Let's remind that Richmond Fed index in October was equal to -5 points vs. 14 points in September.

Pressure on American currencies was especially evident in dollar pairs with European currencies and also so-called, currencies of raw block.
Besides rise in world stock indexes during yesterday's tenders also supported a little the basic currencies vs. dollar. Let's remind that on a background of some scarcity of issues of current statistics this week many investor's attention is directed to a situation on stock markets and information connected with problems on financial markets.
Let's notice that messages in mass media that investment bank Merrill Lynch will inform on losses of $2.5 bln. In the third quarter in addition to previous losses of $5 bln.  also did not gladden investors.

Pessimistic expectations of today's and tomorrow's publications on the US real estate market make the same influence on the dollar.

But main reason of pressure on American currency are still expectations of that FRS will likely reduce rates in October or December.
On this background ECB keeps pausing and while has not determine the probability of rate's cut at the nearest meetings.
However euro tested some pressure today in the morning after information that Turkey started military operations against Labor party of Kurdistan in Iraq.
After oil price dipped by 1.07 dollars a barrel till the level 84.95 dollars a barrel yesterday at tenders in New York situation around Turkish intrusion into Iraq has not yet affected oil quotations.
As a result players adhered to "carry trade" position began to close their positions again. Having been under pressure of cross-rate of European currencies in pair with yen in their turn influenced negatively on situation of euromajors.

Let's remind that today the main release will be the report of September existing home sales in the USA at 14:00 GMT. The forecast of the value is 5.20 bln., that is almost equal to the low of 2001 and the previous value was 5.50 bln.
The existing home market makes 87% of all home sales. If negative forecasts are confirmed this fact will strengthen pressure upon American currency. Moreover it is necessary to pay attention to the market's reaction on publication of results of meeting of New Zealand Bank Governing Council at 21:00 GMT. The rate of New Zealand dollar looks positively after yesterday's reduction.

We again recommend to consider possibilities for purchases of European currencies vs. dollar. Dollar rise on Monday offset a little outbid of euromajors, however risks of new wave of dollar strengthening still remain.
Yen cross-rates are under pressure and probability of continuation of down movement seems to us quite great. As for them We recommend to find intraday signals for opening of medium-term "shorts".


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