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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Decrease of European currencies yesterday reminded the "domino effect"

11:47 10/23/2007

Yesterday on a background of absence of publications of significant statistical data the main driver on the markets were world stock indexes.
Let?s remind again that already during tenders at European session the great drop in quotations on European stock markets began that became a signal for closing of carry trade positions. Expectations of that American stock indexes will be involved into downtrend only promoted the fast closing of long positions of basic currencies in a pair with the Japanese yen.

As a result on a background of drop in yen cross-rates and first of all the euro/yen rates, which dipped to 161.17 that is 250 points below yesterday?s top and the pound/yen, having reduced to 231.04, 350 points below maximum, European majors were also under great pressure.
As a result euro/dollar continued falling at the American session as well and reached 1.4124. During a day the rate of the pair came down by more than 220 points that became the most significant decrease since June, 2006.

Some analysts consider that tone of final communiqu? signed by G7 Ministers of Finances also added some pressure upon yen cross-rates. Let?s remind that G7 representatives recommend firmly the Chinese government to revise its policy and to speed up the process of strengthening of the national currency rate.

It is remarkable that on a background of drop in European majors oil and gold were under pressure. In a result after the high record mark 90.07 dollars a barrel at tenders on Friday yesterday oil quotations in New York were down 1.04 dollars, at a level 87.56 dollars a barrel.

Today the schedule of issues of current statistics is quite dense, though there are no significant American releases.
First of all we recommend to pay attention to publication of review of British Confederation of Manufacturers at 10:00 GMT. Let?s remind that this report will shoe the balance of factory orders in Great Britain in October. Expectations of it are quite positive, though lower than the previous value.
On a background of September rise in the indicator by +6% this month economists forecast more modest rise, by +4%.
Member of Monetary Policy Committee of Bank of England Kate Barker will give a report at 11:45 GMT in Hampshire. Analysts hope to find out the possible steps of Bank of England in a monetary policy of the bank.

Retails index in Canada for August will be published today at 12:30 GMT. Let?s remind that it is the extremely important indicator on Canadian economy.
Despite the rise in rate of the national currency and change of export prices economists expect the growth of sales in August.
It is necessary to remind that the dollar/Canadian is often as a leading indicator concerning the situation to other currency pairs.
At the same time the US Treasury Secretary Henry Paul will give a report on American-Chinese strategic economical dialogue. The statement can influence greatly on situation around Japanese yen.

As a result we recommend not to hurry with trading decisions. To our mind after great yesterday?s fluctuations on a market large players prefer to wait for new blocks of economical statistics for determination of the further vector of market?s dynamics.


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