Euro quotations on dollar held the next record, having tested a new historical top - a level 1,43 dollars for euro.

Already in the beginning of morning Asian trading session dollar bears began speculation for the fall. Depressing data on volume of investments into the US economy and falling of housing starts and registration of new houses in the market of the real estate strengthened expectations of decrease in FRS rate, that accordingly causes drop in investors; interest to dollar.

FRS report on the current economic conditions Beige Book, published yesterday, in the end of day time trading session also did not add optimism. In the report it was noted that rise of economy of the USA was slowed down in the end of III quarter and in the beginning of IV quarter while the estimation of prospects in business circles became less definite. The situation on housing market still causes alarms. It is expected that this market will continue to be cooled within several months, FRS noted.

The bear spirit of the market concerning dollar only amplified after the publication of today data on the US labor market, which showed that jobless claims for a week for October, 13th were up 28 000 to 337 000.

Investors’ mood concerning euro worsened after the publication of the forecast on economy of Germany by Institute of economic researches IFW. According to estimations of experts of this institute the economy of Germany in 2009 will possibly grow more quickly than in 2008, the representative of group of German institutes who published the joint economic forecast considers.

As a whole moods against dollar strengthened noticeably. It was promoted by a turn of more negative than it was expected, news on economy of the USA, especially on the market of the real estate and labor market. Data on decrease in growth of investments into economy of the USA was be expected as it became consequence of too sharp drop in the rate, by 0,50 %.

Whereas the majority of analysts thought that FRS would undertake such drastic steps and would reduce the rate by 0,25 %. However as yesterday's data demonstrated it seemed nobody expected outflow of the capital.

This news background has raised a degree of expectation of downturn of FRS rate up to 75% whereas the percent of expectation of decrease in the rate was equal to approximately 60% in the beginning of week.

Dollar will most likely continue falling up to the end to this week, however how long the bear impulse will last depends on news over the USA next week as now the market is most sensitive to economic statistics.

Political factor cannot be ignored, a pressure on Turkish-Iraq border increases. And if Turkey, contrary to a position of the USA, will begin military actions against Kurds in the north of Iraq it will cause immediately avalanche rise in oil quotations which are already inflated up to maximum levels and the price of barrel can reach fantastic for the beginning year of 100 dollars. And it in turn will spur on dollar falling.

While we remain outside the market as by the end of week there will not appear an opportunity for market entrance.