| USDCHF,USDCAD We forecast that deep dollar-favorable correction is realized till the end of current week |
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11:47 10/15/2007 |
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Friday data for all their diversity, as a whole, were positive for dollar. Let's remind that index of the producers prices in the USA for September were equal to +1.1 % for a month that exceeded a level expected by experts twice, at the forecast of +0.6 % for a month, and the previous value -1.4 % for a month. Thus, however, value of the indicator except for food and energy prices, on the contrary, was twice less than expectations. We remind that at the forecast of +0.2 % for a month, and the previous value of +0.2 %, the parameter was equal to +0.1 % for a month.
The second block of the American data published later, at 14:00 GMT, was much weaker than the previous series of data. We remind that preliminary value of University of Michigan sentiment index in the USA for October was 82.0, at the forecast 83.0, and the previous value 83.4. And the index of current conditions increased from 97.9 a month earlier up to 98.2 points in October, however other components of the report showed decrease in comparison with September values. For example, the index of expectations decreased from 74.1 to 71.6 points, the index of annual inflationary expectations made 3.0 % in comparison with 3.1 % in September, and the index of five years' inflationary expectations also demonstrated reduction from 2.9 % up to 2.8 % in October. Thus the index of inventories in the USA for the August published at the same time was +0.1 %, at the forecast of +0.2 %, and the previous value of +0.5 %. Let's notice that soon after publications of this block of data euro/dollar rate almost at once reached a level 1.4212, but then again was under pressure, and in second half of American session dipped to a mark 1.4156. And in the end of the week tenders the rate was stabilized near a mark 1.4175.
We should also notice for the single European currency the data issued on Friday were not so unambiguous. Let's remind that data on industrial production in Europe (13) were not only unexpectedly strong, but also reached a 8-month's top, having appeared 4 times as much as forecasts. Experts, having estimated these data, noted that after weak second quarter, in the third quarter GDP value can improve a little, supported by a good indicator of industrial production. Thus, the parameter was equal to +1.2 % for a month, +4.3 % for a year, at the forecast of +0.3 % for a month, +2.1 % for a year, and the previous value of +0.6 % for a month, +3.7 % for a year.
However, even these data failed to overcome limits of a trading range till the publication of the American releases. In opinion of analysts, a rate of euro was under pressure of anxiety from many market players that at G7 meeting, which is planned in the end of this week, the theme of a high euro rate will be touched.
We expect significant correction of the basic currencies in favor of dollar, and probable recoils of euro/dollar to a recent top, we consider it (at presence of other technical signals) as a good opportunity for opening of medium term "shorts" with the purpose 1.3920, and then 1.3855. The same situation in dollar/franc pair. In our opinion one more descending wave, which purpose could become levels 1.1725, is necessary for the pair for medium term growth. And the best levels for opening of strategic "longs" can become drop to a mark 1.1690. Now it is early to expect dollar/canadian rise. The main signal for activization of bulls in pair can become overcoming of a mark 0.99. While, for the beginning the rate should overcome a mark 0.9795.
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