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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Positive data on US trade balance impelled traders to stop dollar sales temporarily.

22:28 10/11/2007

The single European currency continued its growth in the beginning of the European session on a background of pessimistic moods concerning the dollar, arisen on expectation of drop in FRS rate and positive moods about euro after Jean-Claude Trichet’s statement.

 

On Thursday the Head of the European Central Bank noted at press-conference that world economic growth remains "strong" and international trade "quite dynamical" despite recent volatility on the financial markets. Answering a question about probable negative consequences for economy of Europe by hike in euro, Trichet noted that the existing exchange rate answers economic fundamental data and reflects real conditions.

 

Let's remind that at October meeting of ECB Governing Council interest rates were left at a former level and probability of new increase of rates was not excluded. However the majority of analysts believes that at least up to the end of this year the rate will remain constant.

 

Data on GDP of Eurozone for 2 quarter of current yea supported euro a little. Gross domestic product of Eurozone in 2 quarter was up 0,3 % in comparison with 1 quarter and up 2,5 % in comparison with 2 quarter, 2006, according to the third estimation of gross domestic product by Eurostat.

 

Rates of economic growth in 2 quarter were minimal since 1 quarter, 2005.

Export growth made 0,8 %, import - 0,5 %, new investments fell by 0,2 % that compensated strong growth of household consumption, made 0,5 %.

 

Under influence of positive bull moods euro grew today during all European session. However already in the beginning of the American session the daytime trend turned. As analysts expected data on the US trade balance were positive and even better than predicted values.

 

Deficit of trade balance of the USA in August, 2007 reduced to $57,59 billion in comparison with value of the last month revised downwardly at a level of $59,00 billion, the Department of Commerce informed. On the average analysts predicted deficiency of trade balance in August at a level of $59,00 billion, basing on the previous value of July - $59,25 billion.

 

As a whole the general direction of a global trend on dollar downturn remains, quotations again approached the historical top, a level of 1,43 dollars for euro. However, there are no good signals for the beginning trade, therefore while we remain off the market.

 

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