Yesterday news from the USA was without surprises. We remind that the publication of FOMC minutes from September, 18^th confirmed that the decision to reduce the federal funds rate at once by 0.50 % up to a level of 4.75 % was accepted unanimously by all FOMC members.

As a result right after publication of the minutes the dollar strengthened a little. In opinion of analysts an occasion for dollar rise became a phrase "inflationary risks are kept and should be under steadfast observation". Also in the minutes there was a warning that "inflationary risks can amplify if dollar decrease is significant".

As a result many players considered these statements as a signal in favor of preservation of the rate at a former level at FRS meeting on October, 31st and consequently hastened to close intermediate term sales of dollar.

It is remarkable that drop in the rate was not considered by FOMC members as an unfavorable step from the point of view of inflationary risks. In its turn, it assumes that at following meeting in case of need FOMC will make the same decision.

Therefore, after short-term growth right after publications of the document the dollar exchange rate again was under pressure. That led the American currency to renewal of drop against all basic currencies.

Yesterday ECB President Trichet had a speech about further policy of bank at the European Parliament. Comments of ECB Head did not practically differ from his statements sounded the last week, after meeting about change of a monetary policy of bank.

So, the main banker of the Europe (13) again warned that next year on a background of a rise in energy prices and rather severe conditions on labor market inflation will be kept above a level of 2 %. Trichet also noticed that recent problems on the financial market were showed in the form of growth of money supply, however uncertainty concerning economic prospects in the Eurozone still exists.

The Head of the European Central Bank reminded as well that excessive volatility and chaotic fluctuations of exchange rates are undesirable and the bank is going to continue to watch new data. Thus in his statements ECB Head did not mention a theme of high euro rate.

It is necessary to notice that the EU Commissioner Almunia who also acted yesterday with statements, not having touched a theme of euro strengthening vs. dollar, paid attention to undesirability of artificial restraint of a rate of the Chinese yuan.

The general tone of Trichet’s speech allowed experts to draw a conclusion that ECB will continue keeping rates at a constant level probably up to the end of current year.

Let's notice that today there are expected statements of several ECB representatives. Analysts hope to hear in their statements prospects of ECB next steps.

At 11:30 ECB member Mario Dragi will report on budget at the Senate of Italy. In two hours, at 13:30 a member of Governing Council Nicolas Garganas in Athens will give a talk on a monetary policy of Bank of Greece for 2007. And at 22.15 statement of ECB member Jurgen Stark takes place in Berlin.

But the main report today will be the publication of wholesale inventories index in the USA for August at 14:00 GMT. We remind that the forecast of a parameter is equal to +0.2 %, and the previous value was also equaled +0.2 %.

As a rule this indicator specifies possible changes in more significant for parameter experts – personal consumption.

As a result, we believe that yesterday's movements in the market pointed out the main vector of the market at the nearest trading sessions, at least, up to the end of this week. We also believe that it is not necessary to consider dollar easing as finished.

Most likely euro/dollar and pound/dollar rates will continue forward dynamics on Thursday. However position of the dollar/yen pair can affect noticeably a situation on European majors.

Let's remind that today at night the Bank of Japan plans meeting concerning change of rates. And possible closing of long-term purchases of the pair before BJ meeting can generate an initial impulse for reduction in a rate.

In this case pressure from yen cross-rates will surely influence noticeably on a situation in euro/dollar, dollar/franc and pound/dollar.

Taking into account this situation, we recommend to continue purchases of euromajors, however, in case of the beginning of decrease of yen cross-rates fix earlier opened “longs” immediately.