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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Dollar keeps falling under weight of next negative

11:47 09/26/2007

Friday data of the US real estate market showed decrease in existing home sales in. According to independent Association Realtors purchases of houses were reduced by 4,% to a level 5,5 million in August in comparison with the last month and by 13,0% in comparison with the similar period of the last year.

The number of unsold houses in August reached record marks and caused by a crisis situation in sphere of mortgage lending, that partly served as the reason of so slump of FRS rate.

 Experts of housing market believe that recession in the market of the real estate will proceed until the second quarter of next year when the effect from decrease in FRS basic rate and the mortgage rates connected with it will affect.

 

Reduction in activity in the labor market which was noted the last two months and also a downtrend of this activity in the long term will affect negatively consumer potential of a home market of the USA.

 

Data of independent research organization Consumer Confidence confirmed these fears, the index of consumers’ activity decreased in September to 99,8 points from 105,6 points in August. Analysts did not expect so strong drop in this indicator, the market waited for decrease in the index to 104,5.

 

And, as a rule, reduction in consumer moods, first of all, affects demand for the goods of long using and in the housing market.

However, as experts consider the real estate market will test a bottom by the end of this year.

 

Today's economic data over the USA on durable goods orders added a portion of bad news to the dollar. Durable Orders showed unexpectedly strong drop. Durable orders decreased in August by 4,9% in August against growth in July by 6,1% in July.

 

As a whole the downtrend on dollar proceeds. Investors lose their interest in dollar, first of all because of dip in rates of Federal Reserve and also on a background of deterioration of economic conditions. Such tendency will most likely prolong up to the end of this year and during the first quarter of next year.

 

On the open positions: stop on euro is placed higher, at fixed profit, at a level 1,4050.

 

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