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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Euro reached a new historical top, a level 1,41, than displeased European governments.

11:47 09/24/2007

On Friday and on Monday after traders "won back" the decision of the Federal Reserve in the market there was not observed especially sharp movements on a background of absence of significant news, however euro growth proceeded.

 

The single European currency drifted smoothly a little above and tested a new historical top, a level of 1,41 dollars for euro.

Euro rise above 1,40 displeases the European politicians. The most furious opponent of European Central Bank Nikolya Sarkozy considers that the euro hike caused by reduction of a difference in ECB and FRS rates after drop in the last by 50 basic points, is a serious problem for the European economy. However ECB Head Jean-Claude Trichet in recent speech at Eurocommission meeting once again emphasized that the Central Bank should not reduce the rate as EU economic growth remains stable and risks of inflation prevail over the risks of stagnation.

 

Meanwhile, traders do not find arguments for dollar game. According to survey led by independent analytical organization UBS/Gallup, investors’ optimism in the USA decreased to an annual minimum.

The index of UBS investors’ optimism dipped in September to 68 points from 73 points in August.

 

Besides data of Chicago Federal Reserve bank showed that economic growth of the USA on results of August were below a mid-annual parameter. Moving average of value of the index made -0,21 points in August against -0,11 in July. According to the same source subindexes concerning production, employment, the consumer market and the market of the real estate were in a negative zone.

 

The record rise in oil prices continues to put pressure upon the dollar. Quotations of oil futures with delivery in October at NYMEX are kept near levels of 80 dollars a barrel, despite the small correction caused by reduction of threat of hurricane on oil platforms in Gulf of Mexico and renewal of oil recovery on fields in this region.

 

However, as experts of oil market note such situation will not last for long and soon growth of quotations will proceed. The oil market is in pressure because of a great demand on fuel before a winter cold season in the USA and on a background of expectation of slump of week stocks of oil and mineral oil. A situation around oil fields of Nigeria, one of members of OPEC oil cartel, adds fuel to the fire.

 

Militants of a grouping of Movement for emancipation of Niger Delta declared that with the beginning of this week will renew attacks on objects of oil production and abduction of foreign experts in response to arrest of one of its leaders. Henry Oscar.

 

As a whole the market’s tone remains former - against the dollar. The American currency and assets of the USA lose investment appeal as investors expect the further decrease in FRS rate. The majority of analysts consider that a level 1,44 dollars for euro is possible to expect in October-November after FRS will announce the next step in reduction of the rate, by 25 basic points.

 

On the open positions: stop on euro is placed above, at fixed profit, at a level 1,4030.

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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