Sensational data on monthly reports on the US employment shocked the market and caused dollar falling. Within two hours the dollar lost more than hundred points against euro.

According to monthly reports on employment from Department of Labor for the first time for last four years payrolls in American economy did not increase but decreased.

According to analytical bureau of Department of Labor nonfarm payrolls dipped by 4.000 in August, 2007 in comparison with the growth revised downwardly by 62.000 a month earlier. Analysts predicted growth by 110.000.

Futures for quotations of S&P 500 index slumped by 14,90 points, futures for Dow Jones index - by 101 points, futures for Nasdaq 100 - by 108 points.

The report showed losses of payrolls in sphere of construction, in production and in transport were so strong that practically graded small increase in payrolls in service sphere.

Data on the labor market demonstrate evidently that aggravated crisis in mortgage sphere starts to spread to other spheres of the economy, natural employers’ reaction: in conditions of instability they prefer to refrain from expansion of production and business, including creation of new work places.

That is characteristic: last reduction of payrolls was in August, 2003 and anticipated itself the next wave of a scale downtrend against dollar.

Soon after an issue of these reports within two months the dollar fell more than by 2000 points, or more than by 20 % against euro.

On a background of these circumstances more and more analysts tend assume that FRS will not have a choice about the rate of federal funds. Crisis in the market of the real estate, and already sharp recession in the labor market which consequences will affect a level of consumer moods the nearest time are strong reasons to reduce the rate. Analysts believe that with the big share of probability on September, 18th, rates at FOMC meeting will be decreased by 0,25 %, and to the end of year FRS dip it by 0,25 %, finally to 4,75 %.

Short-term futures for reduction of FRS key interest rate reflects probability of increase of the rate.

Today they have grown up to 78 percents from yesterday's level - 42 percents, that is confidence of the market that the rate will be reduced, has increased today more than by one and a half time if to define it quantitatively on futures for expectation of change of the rate.

Thus, slump in the labor market practically does not leave arguments for FRS to keep the rate.

Therefore dollar which is already under pressure, will receive a powerful impulse for the further falling after decision on reduction of the rate. The differential between ECB and FRS rates will be reduced even more after such decision, nothing can already keep the dollar in these conditions below a price level 1,386 - a historical top of the price on euro, and by the end of year the level of 1,4 dollars for 1 euro becomes quite real.

On the open positions on euro from 1,369 and on pound 2,022, the near purposes of 40 points were reached, on positions on the distant purposes it is necessary to place in break-even.