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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Euro is down expecting ECB decisions on rate

22:35 09/04/2007

Morning tenders at forex opened with euro drop against dollar.

 

The rates of the largest world financial systems of Old and New World – FRS, ECB and Bank of England are in the center of market attention.

 

Investors close the bull positions on euro expecting decisions of the European Central Bank and Bank of England. Meetings of Governing Councils of these banks will be held on Thursday, it is expected that interest rates of these banks will remain without change. At the last meeting of Governing Council the rate was left without change, but ECB Head in comments to this decision made it clear for the market that the level of 4 % per annum is not a target level and the rate can be raised by 0,25 by the end of year. However contrary to such rigid statements stated by Trichet at the last meeting ECB is inclined to leave the rate at a former level this time under pressure of the European governments, in particular the government of France. Let's remind that in the recent appeal to ECB management the President of France Nicolas Sazkozy called the Central Bank of Europe to carry out more weighed policy concerning rates as euro rise which rate directly depends on a ratio of rates, can affect negatively economic growth of Europe.

 

However in the beginning of the American session euro falling to dollar was suspended after an issue of weak data on production in the USA - ISM indexes.

 

Activity in industrial sector of economy of the USA was slowed down in August, 2007, the ISM review of testifies.

PMI index reflecting activity in a sector, dipped in August to 52,9 points from 53,8 points the last month. Economists expected value of the index at a level 53,0 points. Value of the indicator above 50 points testifies to rise of sector, below means recession.

 

The dollar was under pressure of oil market. In Gulf of Mexico there is a season of hurricanes, hurricane Felix approaches to oil-extracting towers, it received the highest ball on force. It has already approached the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras, however the management of the companies extracting oil in Gulf of Mexico do not hurry up with evacuation of the personnel. Meanwhile October futures for light oil on NYMEX have risen in price up to $74,24 a barrel.

 

Oil growth is also affected by position of oil cartel OPEC, which contrary to pressure of the countries of large oil importers to increase a daytime quota on oil production, is not ready to make such decision.

 

The basic oil exporters in OPEC consider that the offer of oil in the market is more than enough and that the rise in oil prices this year up to record levels of 80 dollars a barrel is more likely caused by the political and climatic reasons rather than increase of demand.

 

Tomorrow data on the market of the real estate of the USA and FRS review on current economic conditions in the country are expected. However the market attention will be still concentrated on ECB decision on rate and also on the report on the US employment in August which will be published on Friday. Therefore tomorrow market is not expected be quite active.

While we remain outside the market.

 

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TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
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EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
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