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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD European currencies are positive in long-term prospect, however, this week dollar-favorable correction is possible...

22:17 09/04/2007

So, key events of this week will be already today. We remind that this week some Central Banka planned to hold meetings concerning change of a monetary policy.

So, today the Reserve Bank of Australia will make a decision on change of the interest rate first. And then, on Wednesday meetings of Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and ECB on Thursday will begin.

 

Let's notice that overwhelming majority of economists assume that the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Bank of England and ECB will leave rates constant. Though concerning two last Central Banks experts’ opinion is not so unequivocal, and some analysts do not exclude probability of increase in the rate by 0,25 %. However, in a view of high volatility of the financial markets on a background of crisis in sector of the American substandard mortgage lending and kept probability of drop in the federal funds rate by FRS European central bank and Bank of England will most likely refrain from too aggressive steps.

As a result we are assured that despite kept inflationary pressure and aggressive statements of representatives of some Central Banks we are inclined to believe that ECB, Bank of England will not toughen the credit policy this week.

 

Let's note that optimistical statements of representatives of the Central Banks give some confidence of investors’ actions. As a result the increasing number of players starts to consider trading opportunities for opening of carry trade positions and also opening of long positions on, to so-called, raw currencies.

The representatives of Bank of Japan inspire the positive spirit concerning prospects. So, yesterday it became known that all largest Japanese bank groups, including Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., informed officially on losses only for the sum of 20 billion yens that is quite small sum in comparison with total amount of the investments connected with the American mortgage bonds.

And, according to Nikkei agency, regional Japanese banks and also bank groups have volume of the investments connected with the American mortgage bonds for the sum of about 52 billion yens. Thus, their losses make approximately 47 million dollars.

Let's also remind that the member of ECB Governing Council Almunia declared yesterday that rates of economical growth in Eurozone in 2007 can reach 2.7 %. Having mentioned a problem of crisis of credit market Almunia said that its influence on economy of the Eurozone next year will be very insignificant. So, Almunia noticed that though these problems can affect growth in 2008, but its influence will be evaluated in "several basic points".

As a whole, on results of Monday on a background of days off in Canada and the USA the basic currency pairs continued trade in ranges.

On a background of absence of the American players who celebrated Labor Day yesterday other market players did not hurry up with opening of new positions, considering Friday statistics.

 

As a result we suppose that in long-term prospect the main European currencies in pairs with dollar will continue growth, however this week the probability of realization of deeper correction in favor of dollar seems to us quite high.

Let's also remind that in many respects the direction of the basic currency pairs will be defined by statements of representatives of BE and ECB after promulgation of decisions this week.

We assume that the situation will give us trading opportunities for opening of short-term "longs" on the dollar/franc and dollar/canadian rate.

Let's also notice that the situation around yen cross-rates as well as on positions carry trade still keeps significant risks of decrease.

 

 

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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