So, today it is the day off in the USA and Canada - Labor Day that is why the financial markets do not work.

Let's remind that the main events of this week will be meetings of three largest European banks - ECB (on Thursday), Bank of England (on Wednesday) and also Bank of Canada (on Wednesday).

Besides publications of ISM index in the USA and Friday report on the US labor market will not be ignored by market players.

Let's notice that economists’ forecasts concerning results of meetings of the Central Banks this week divided. The majority of experts assume that all three Central Banks will leave rates at current levels. However, some analysts do not exclude probability that ECB which earlier gave precise signal to increase the rate in September, on a background of increase in money supply and other signs of growth of inflationary pressure in Eurozone, can make a decision about the next increase of the basic interest rate this week.

We also note that in our opinion despite recent aggressive statements of Trichet and other ECB representatives in a view of prospects of easing of FRS monetary policy and also high volatility  in the financial markets, the bank will not toughen the monetary policy.

Though we also do not exclude an opportunity of the next toughening of monetary policy by ECB up to the end of 2007, however it will most likely happen not in September.

Let's also remind that the probability of drop in the rate from FOMC remains rather high. In Friday statement Chairman of Federal reserve System of the USA Bernanke preferred to evade the direct answer to a question on rates, having declared that in case of strengthening of negative effects on economy due to problems of the financial markets, FOMC is ready to react resolutely.

Bernanke confirmed that uncertainty among investors increased as the financial losses born during crisis, exceeded the most pessimistic forecasts. He also noticed that correction of the housing market was sharp enough, and the further prospects will depend now on development of a situation in the mortgage market. Besides FRS Head warned that if current conditions in the mortgage market are kept, housing demand can continue its decrease with possible consequences for a national economy.

As a result, not having cleared up a situation concerning terms of change of parameters of a credit policy, Ben Bernanke declared that FRS will watch closely timely indicators as well as separate events, and, in case of need, it is ready to take additional measures to provide liquidity and to support functioning the financial markets.

It is remarkable that economists were also interested in comments about a current situation from the US President Bush. We remind that George Bush confirmed that the federal government modernizes legislative base in the sphere of mortgage lending, having increased limits of credits and provided more flexible prices.

The US President also suggested to change the tax code to make write-off of debts easier.

As a result, not having cleared a situation concerning the further prospects on change of rates, some large players preferred to fix earlier opened long positions on single European currency, than pushed euro/dollar to so slump in a rate on Friday.

However, it is necessary to notice objectively that all the macroeconomic indictors published on Friday, were also above forecasts. So, the index of personal incomes in the USA for July, made +0.5 % at the forecast of +0.3 %, and the previous value of +0.4 %. The index of personal consumption in the USA for July made +0.4 %, at the forecast of +0.3 %, and the previous value of +0.1 %.

Thus the index of factory orders in the USA for July made +3.7 %, at the forecast of +3.3 %. And the previous value is revised from +0.6 % up to +1.0 %. And Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index in the USA for August made 53.8, at the forecast 54.0, and the previous value 53.4.

It is necessary to notice that such parameter as final value of University of Michigan Consumer index in the USA for August though exceeded forecasts, but showed negative dynamics in comparison with a previous month. We remind that value of the indicator made 83.4, at the forecast 82.5, and preliminary value 83.3. Thus in July value of a parameter was equaled 90.4 points.

And some important components of the index demonstrated reduction. So, the index of current conditions in August made 98.4 points against 104.5 earlier while the index of expectations fell to 73.7 points from 81.5. The index of annual inflationary expectations dipped from 3.4 % in July to 3.2 % in August.

On a background of a celebratory subtlety of the market and an opportunity of rumors around forthcoming decisions of the Central Banks this week, the probability of trading risks seems to us high enough.

Therefore we recommend to be outside the market. Thus in medium term prospect we consider dollar/franc and dollar/canadian positively.