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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Despite drop in European currencies against dollar we consider them positively...

23:21 08/13/2007

So, events of the end of the last week made all market players to be extremely cautious in the trading decisions. We remind that on Friday three largest Central Banks marked their presence on financial markets. So, Federal Reserve System of the USA, ECB and Bank of Japan undertook steps for maintenance of additional liquidity of their financial systems to prevent the further decrease in stock markets. As a result actions of Federal reserve system led to some ascending correction of the basic American stock indexes. Besides on a background of strengthening of fears quotations of precious metals, first of all gold, grew considerably.

 

If to consider actions of Central Banks in chronology it becomes obvious that European central bank reacted to a disturbing situation on stock platform one of the first as on Thursday it gave liquidity in volume of 95,0 billion euro to  the monetary markets of a zone of euro. And on Friday the volume of ECB injections made 61,0 billion euros.

 

As a result the total amount of injections exceeded 230 billion dollars that became record figure after steps undertaken by Central Banks in response to attacks of terrorists on September, 11th, 2001. And ECB added more liquidity to the European monetary market than FRS - to the dollar market. It is most likely that it explains the fact that descending movement on euro/dollar proceeded after injections.

Besides steps of Central Banks reduced greatly chances of increase of the rate of the Central Bank in September. It is obvious that would be illogical if on the one hand ECB weakened monetary terms to provide the market with liquidity, and on the other hand - toughened the same terms, raising interest rates.

 

It is necessary to notice objectively that though the decision on injection of liquidity into the European monetary market last week probably helped to calm some fears concerning global credit crisis, however a problem still remains.  

 

Let's notice that on this background there are contours of new threat for the world financial markets. We remind that last week Sinhua agency with the reference to undisclosed representative of Central Bank of China, commenting on a situation around trading sanctions of the USA against the Chinese People's Republic and an opportunity of Peking on liquidation of their Treasuries, declared that "dollar assets, including the American state bonds, are the important component of the Chinese currency reserves as the dollar plays a core role in the international monetary system".

Besides last Wednesday the British Daily Telegraph informed "the government of China started organized campaign of economic threats against the USA".

 

We assume that current weakness of single European currency will be not long. Decrease in a rate of euro does not look justified. We remind that economists do not see threat from crisis in the sphere of crediting for leading economy of the Eurozone - Germany.

Let's notice that in their opinion the disturbing situation in the market of substandard crediting will not influence greatly on the confident economic rise of the largest economy of Europe (13).

Timeliness and clearness of actions of the European central bank on maintenance of sufficient liquidity in the markets also gives confidence to investors.

We recommend being outside of market, to consider trading opportunities for opening of medium term sales of dollar/franc and also purchases of euro/dollar, pound/dollar.

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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