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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Dollar did not remain on its feet after issue of unexpectedly weak data on employment in the USA.

20:16 08/06/2007

Unexpectedly weak data on the US labor market caused a powerful bear impulse against the dollar on all basic currencies, quoted on the world foreign exchange markets.

 

On Friday euro reached the price of 1,3800 dollars, on Monday morning Asian session opened with powerful gap and the price almost touched a line of the historical top tested on the eve - a level of 1,3850 dollars for euro.

 

The unemployment rate grew up to 4,6 % in July against 4,5 % in June. Contrary to expectations of market experts nonfarm payrolls reduced sharply. Businessmen increased number of workplaces by 92000 the last month whereas in June there was created by 126000 more. It became the least parameter since February of this year.

 

The biggest drop in workplaces first of all was in sphere of budgetary employment, and also in the building industry, which is in a stage of stagnation due to crisis in the real estate. And finally it influenced on the total picture of employment. In car industry the number of workplaces reduced slightly, and in IT sphere even increased a little.

 

In spite of the fact that the unemployment rate remains still low compared with last year's data when the index of unemployment rose above 5 %, investors are seriously concerned by the descending tendency in the labor market. In opinion of Lynn Risser, group economist at Bank of America's Investment Strategies Group, the US labor market and the consumer market connected with it are a strength of the American economy, hopes for prompt way-out of stagnation are connected with it. Therefore so weak labor data also cause such sharply negative reaction of investors.

 

Pessimistic moods in end of a weekend were characteristic not only concerning the dollar, on stock exchange platforms of the USA dump of blue chips was observed. Stocks of the companies entering into Dow-Jones fell to 13 163, again having tested this local low. Wall Street investors are concerned not only by bad news on the labour market but by a crisis in credit sphere. We remind that the falling of real estate market was caused by hike of credit rates.

 

The policy of keeping of federal funds rates by Federal Reserve granted a respite to the market of loan capital and market of real estate closely connected with mortgage lending. We remind that during two years since the end of 2003 FRS raised the rate 18 times in a row, then the rate of 5,25 % per annum was fixed exactly for a year.

 

However Ben Bernanke, FRS Had and his nearest company consider that inflation is still the main threat for economy despite of recession of rates of economical rise.

 

In the global scope the situation did not change, the dollar continues to be under pressure. However euro bulls will hardly find forces for the further active pressure of a level 1,3850. The differential of rates between FRS and ECB rates remains constant, therefore till the end of year sideways on eurodollar nevertheless remains relevant.

 

On open euro positions from 1,369, the near purposes of 40 points were achieved, on the distant purposes on euro place fixed profit at 1,376 dollars.

 

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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