Thus, strengthening the European currencies against dollar on a background of some factors became a result of the last week.

ECB Head Mr. Trichet again confirmed an invariance of policy of the increased vigilance on last Thursday.

Let's remind that commenting on the last decisions of bank, Trichet noted that "necessity to demonstrate the increased vigilance" is still kept.

It is remarkable that on Friday the Executive of European Central Bank answered a question of the leader of one of the French radio channels that his words about demonstration of the increased vigilance are often interpreted by experts as the indication of rather high probability of rate increase at following meeting". However, to keep an intrigue Trichet added that ECB makes such decisions always in view of the data accessible at the meeting.

As a result, at present the markets consider in prices 92 % of probability of rate increase at meeting on September, 6th.

We also notice that last data of Institute of research of business cycles specify that in June strengthening of inflationary pressure was outlined in Eurozone. So, in June ECRI index grew up to 104,8 from 104,4 in May. Thus, in economists’ opinion growth of the index was connected first of all with strengthening of inflationary pressure in Germany where the indicator rose from 92,9 in May up to 95,8 in June.

Eurobulls positions were amplified noticeably after Friday survey of the US labor market. We remind that nonfarm payrolls in the USA for July made 92 thousand, at the forecast 130 thousand and the previous value is revised from 132 thousand up to 126 thousand.

And, unemployment in the USA made 4.6 % in July, at the forecast of 4.5 %, and the previous value of 4.5 %. Thus the index of hourly earnings in the USA made +0.3 % in July, at the forecast of +0.3 %, and the previous value of +0.3 %.

Data of the report of ISM services could not support decreasing dollar. So, value of the indicator, unexpectedly decreased to 55.8 points, at the forecast in 58.5 points and the previous value of 60.7.

Thus the index of employment made 51.7 and the index of new orders was equal to 52.8 points. However, the index of paid prices made 61.3 points in comparison with 65.5 earlier. Also the index of export orders dipped to 52.5 from 59 points in June and the index of inventories reached a level of 52.0 points from previous 52.5.

Though growth of economic activity in service sector was kept, however its rates in June were weaker than in May.

As a result on Friday the dollar/franc rate became absolute champion, having shown day time decrease by 205 points. The euro/dollar pair added 140 points within a day, having tested a mark 1.3818. And the pound/dollar rate was not so prompt and grew by 121 points, having fixed at a level 2.0460.

It is remarkable that after falling of the basic American stock indexes soon after the beginning of the tenders the dollar/yen rate also directed downwards, having lost 100 points and achieved a mark 117.92.

Let's notice that before tomorrow's FOMC meeting concerning monetary policy activity of the market has sharply decreased.

Let's remind that the result of FRS meeting will be piublished tomorrow, on Tuesday on August, 7th at 22.15 Moscow time. Thus all analytical agencies expect that FRS will leave a rate at a level of 5,25 %.

However, Ben Bernanke's statements will be on focus of attention. After the publication of varied economic data and the intense situation in other financial markets experts expect an estimation of these events by FRS officials.

Therefore, taking into account high risks of trade before FOMC meeting we recommend while to be outside the market