Thus, as we assumed on Thursday the European currencies renewed their uptrend. Market players ignored positive American data, but paid attention to a phrase of ECB Head Trichet about vigilance concerning the inflationary risks, sounded soon after ECB decision

Let's remind that these words of ECB Head are for experts some kind of a reference point for confirmation of aggressive moods at following meeting.

Number of jobless claims in the USA for a week by 28.07 made 307 thousand, at the forecast 312 thousand. And the previous value is revised from 301 thousand up to 303 thousand

And such indicator as the index of factory orders for June in the USA though was below forecasts, however exceeded considerably the previous value.

Let's remind that the indicator made +0.6 % for a month, at the forecast of +1.4 % for a month, and the previous value -0.5 % for a month. And, nondurable orders were down 0.1 % due to the moderate reduction in orders for chemical production and also for coal and fuel.

And durable orders in the meantime were up 1.3 % in comparison with a preliminary indicator of +1.4 %. The volume of unfilled orders increased by 1.4 %. And inventories grew by 0.3 %, and shipments decreased by 0.6 % therefore the ratio inventories/shipments rose up to 1.25 from 1.24 in May.

We also remind that announcement of decisions two the largest Central Banks at the European session did not cause special movements in the market.

As economists’ majority expected the result of two-day meeting of Monetary Policy Committee of Bank of England became the decision to leave the basic repo rate without change, at a level of 5.75 %. We notice that last time the rate was changed on July, 5th, 2007 when the ratio 6-3 majority of voices decided to lift rate by 0.25 %.

The majority of economists noted that on a background of kept alarms concerning problems on both credit and stock markets and powerful flood in the end of July, this decision was absolutely right.

Governing Council of European Central Bank made the similar decision in a result of the next meeting. So ECB decided to leave interest rates in Europe (13) without change, at a level of 4.00 %. Last time the basic interest rates in region was changed on June, 6th, 2007, it was raised by 0.25 %.

Thus it is necessary to note that a primary factor for drop in a dollar exchange rate was restoration of key American stock indexes. Dow Jones growth and other basic indexes allowed some players to return to habitual actions - carry trade.

For two last days the dollar/yen rate added 180 points. However for long-term bull positions it is not high time yet, in case of inability to overcome a level 119.50 and fixing above it the dollar/yen pair can soon appear at key levels of support close to 115.00, and then decrease to the main many months support at 110.00.

An occasion for this can be uncertainty around the market of substandard mortgage lending which still causes considerable concern of many economists.

Let's remind that on Thursday data that among sufferers from increase in number of defaults on non-standard loans there was Bear Stearns company. Besides investors’ alarms are caused also by a situation around Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co., which Head did not exclude even a probability of bankruptcy.

There are rumors that American International Group Inc can also be among victims.

As a result on a background of dull market during a season of holidays value of a situation around yen cross-rates will increase. Therefore there is probability of continuation of rise in euro/dollar today up to a level 1.3760-70, and pound/dollar up to a level 2.0415-25. We recommend while to keep opened before purchase on these pairs up to achievement to the specified levels.

Thus the probability of renewal of drop in yen cross-rates is kept.