Euro/dollar quotations continue to balance between two historical extremums - one was reached a week earlier, it is a level of 1,385 dollars for euro. The second is a magic of 1,3680 dollars for euro, euro tested this historical level again in the beginning of May of this year. We remind that for the first time euro reached this level in the beginning of 2004 then deep recoil towards dollar strengthening followed.

Yesterday activity of euro bulls was restrained a little by statements of Chairman of ECB Governing Council - Jean-Claude Trichet.

ECB Head considers that the interest rate of bank of 4 % is an optimum level for regulation of economy of the European Union. The inflationary background in 13 Eurozone countries is in controllable limits, at the same time economic growth in a zone of euro remains steady.

ECB raised its forecast concerning rates of EU economic growth for 2007 by 0,1 % up to 2,6 % of GDP gain, earlier experts estimated growth of economy up to 2,5 % of GDP gain.

According to ECB inflation in the Eurozone makes less than 2 %, a target level at which the economy develops steadily. In July the inflationary indicator dropped to 1,8 % from 1,9 % in June. The unemployment rate in EU is at record-breaking low level of 6,9%.

Today the market is consolidated expecting the key report on Employment in the USA

It is rather important market indicator having the supreme degree of importance A, according to 6-grade scale of the importance of financial news. It includes 4 basic components and the indicator of the labor market:

Average Workweek

Hourly Earnings

Nonfarm Payrolls

Unemployment Rate

In this list indicators Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate are especially important. The increase in the first and decrease in the last - support dollar and on the contrary reduction of the first parameter and increase in the second - put pressure upon dollar.

Let's remind that the previous data on employment for June were a little bit rather weak. Data on employment showed that businessmen in the USA created more than it was expected nonfarm workplaces, however it was much less than the previous parameter in May. The revised values for May demonstrated growth of payrolls up to 190000, for June data showed growth only up to 132 000.

This time analysts also do not expect strong changes - it is expected that rise in payrolls in July will a little raise up to 135 000 against June data of 132000. And unemployment rate remains without changes, at 4,5 %.

If analysts’ expectations are justified, the dollar can become stronger.

As a whole in the nearest outlook dollar and euro positions will be poised.

The percentage differential between ECB and FRS rates, which was narrowed for last two years and caused significant dollar falling, achieved the certain optimum.

The level of rates satisfies both ECB and FRS management. It means that in the third quarter exchange rates of the USA and EU will most likely stabilize in specific prices corridor and, at least, the sideways will be relevant in the near future.

Today there is an opportunity to open intraday positions on results of news issue on following conditions. Shorts on euro and pound sterling if Nonfarm Payrolls is better than predicted values, and Unemployment Rate is at a former level or decreases.

Longs on euro and pound sterling if Nonfarm Payrolls is worse than the previous values and  forecasts, and Unemployment Rate is at a former level or increases.

If Nonfarm Payrolls is in a range above expectations, but worse than the previous data, or Unemployment Rate is in contradiction with NP data we remain off market.