| USDCHF,USDCAD Correction of European currencies against dollar still remains relevant... |
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11:47 08/02/2007 |
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Thus, on results of yesterday's tenders the dollar could not set up at the tops achieved on Tuesday and Wednesday at the Asian session. So, after drop to levels 1.0201 and 1.3636, on a background of the publication of a weak ISM index for July, and also on employment ADP pound/dollar and euro/dollar rates again repaired an omission and rose accordingly to 1.0350 and 1.3710.
So we remind that ISM index in the USA for July made 53.8, at the forecast 55.9, and the previous value 56.0. Thus the majority of components of the report also showed negative dynamics. So, decrease in activity was observed in industrial sector, and in July rates of growth were the least for last four months. The index of the paid prices fell to 65.0 points from 68.0 in June, the index of import orders remained at a former level of 54.5 points, and the index of employment made 50.2. The index of new orders in July made 57.5 points against 60.3 a month agi, the index of production dipped to 55.6 from 62.9.
Data of the employment report ADP in July, which made only 48 thousand, at the forecast of 100 thousand, crippled most the American currency Let's also notice that these disappointing data promote that expectations of market players of strong data on growth of employment in nonfarm sector on Friday will noticeably decrease. Let's remind that until the publication of ADP data the forecast of ride in nonfarm payrolls made 135 thousand.
We also notice that events on world stock platforms still play great role in a general situation the market.. Let's remind that after comments of the Secretary of Treasury Henry Paulson about influence of crisis in the market of substandard mortgage lending is limited, stock indexes received a positive charge, however it did not last long and investors’ fears around problems of substandard mortgage lending again won. As a result the basic American stock indexes were again in "red", having shown negative dynamics. At the same time some most optimistic experts specify that stable growth of workplaces will help investors "to forget" about problems in the financial and housing markets.
However the majority of economists believe that charges can be kept at a high level only due to mortgage bonds and profit-taking on stock market.
Cross-rates with the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are as peculiar indicator of a condition of the stock market today. We remind that yesterday, on a background of decrease in the American stock market at opening yen cross-rates were also under pressure.
And today players will turn their attention to decisions of two Central Banks – ECB and BE. So, at 11:00 GMT results of meeting of Monetary Policy Committee of Bank of England will be issued. And results of ECB Governing Council meeting concerning change of interest rates will be known at 11:45 GMT.
Let's remind that today both banks are not expected aggressive actions, most likely, rates will be left without changes. However, hawkish moods among ECB Governing Council members of prevail, and experts predict that the bank will still increase the rate by 0,25 % this year twice. Thus it is expected that BE will increase the rate by 0,25 % only once.
We still wait for upward correction of euro and pound against dollar. The first purposes of this correction will be levels 1.3766 and 2.0450. Situation on dollar/franc is less predictable. The matter is that this pair subjects to influence of carry trades currents, and also correlates with the basic currency pairs. Therefore concerning this pair it is necessary while to keep waiting position.
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