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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Today market expects first important market indicator this month - ISM index.

23:11 08/01/2007

In spite of the fact that yesterday there was day rich in news investors showed the smallest activity. And the reason for it became first of all weak base over both Old and from New World.

 

Over Germany: Retails showed drop in July in comparison with data for the last month. In June sales were up 0,7 % concerning May, instead of expected 1,3 %, for last 12 months sales fell by 0,8 %. May indicators were revised up to -2,5 % m/m from -1,8 % m/m originally and up to -4,2 % y/y from -3,7 %.

According to German office of statistics decrease in sales was observed on food and production of light industry.

 

Euro was under pressure of data on unemployment in Germany which reached in June peak seasonal value - 8,9 %, that is 0.001% above data for June. The number of jobless grew to 3,715 million from 3,687 million in June.

 

Over France: the index of consumer sentiment in July in France fell to -15 from -12 in June, according to the monthly report of institute of statistics Insee. Economists forecast that the index would remain without changes -12.

 

Over the USA: Chicago PMI demonstrated reduction, the index dropped to 53,4 points in July, against June indicator of 60,2 points. It was even below predicted value of 58.5.

 

Yesterday investors turned their attention to parameters of personal incomes and consumption in June in the United States.

These data as a rule are closely followed by the market, first of all with the purpose of forecasting of the further FRS steps concerning federal funds rate.

 

Personal incomes of Americans show growth during two months, personal charges raise as well, however as analysts mark rise in incomes and expenses is at the slowest rates.

 

If incomes and charges exceed expectations, the most predicted FRS reaction is increase of the rate with the purpose of cooling inflation. But if both indicators grow at slower rates than it is considered by analysts and experts of the Federal Reserve, the rate of lending which depend directly on rates of federal funds, can be lowered for stimulation of real sectors of economy. And last circumstance will put pressure upon dollar.

 

Today it is expected the first indicator in a monthly cycle of fundamental parameters over the USA - the indicator of industrial activity - ISM index.

The market does not expect any changes in data on this index, analysts assume that value of this index remains without changes.

Euro and dollar positions will hardly change today. This week the market will wait for the key report on employment in the USA which will be published by Department of Labor on Friday.

 

As a whole the dollar continues being under pressure. An indirect sing of dollar weakness is record growth of quotations of oil futures at world raw stock exchanges.

 

The level, seemed to be fantastic a year ago - 80 dollars a barrel became relevant in summer of this year. The record price was observed yesterday at NYMEX - 78,4 a barrel. Analysts of oil market believe that the level of 100 dollars a barrel becomes a reality by the end of this year. And the dollar can achieve marks above 1,4 on euro.

While remain outside the market.

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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