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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Preliminary value of gross domestic product for second quarter was unexpectedly positive...

11:47 07/30/2007

Thus, the publication of preliminary value of gross domestic product of the USA for the second quarter was not negative and reduced noticeably alarms of players and experts concerning possible delay of growth of a national economy.

 

So, according to estimations in the second quarter GDP growth in the USA made 3.4 %, at the economists’ forecast of 3.2 %. However economists were focused on core PCE index which showed decrease to +1.4 % in comparison with +2.4 % in the first quarter.

It is remarkable that final sales in the second quarter were up 3.2 % from 1.3 %, and PCE index was up 1.3 % after +3.7 % the last quarter. And GDP data in the first quarter, meanwhile, were revised from +0.7 % up to +0.6 % while in the fourth quarter economic growth made 2.1 %.

Data on GDP growth were also revised (from +2.0 % up to +1.1 %) in the third quarter and in 2005 (from +3.2 % up to +3.1 %). Base PCE index for the fourth quarter 2006 was revised from +1.8 % up to +1.9 %.

The experts, analyzing data of the review, pay attention that investments of non-residents into a fixed capital in the second quarter 2007 grew by 8.1 % after +2.1 % in the second and by -1.4 % in the fourth one.

And, the income decreased by 0.8 % in comparison with +5.9 % in the first quarter, and the level of savings made +0.6 % against +1.1 % earlier.

 

At the same time the factor of pressure which pushed the dollar to new sales, became University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, in final reading for July which, at the economists’ forecast of 91.0 and preliminary value 92.4 points, was equal to 90.4. However, thus, remaining above 85.3 in June.

 

Thus the index of one-monthly inflationary expectations, in the meantime, rose up to 3.4 % from 3.3 %. And the index of current conditions was revised up to 104.5 in comparison with preliminary 105.7 points and 101.9 points the last month while the index of expectations reached 81.5 points compared with 74.7 points earlier.

 

A situation around the Japanese yen draws attention of all market players. We remind that Friday testing of lows at a level 118.00, and today's beginning of the tenders at the same levels, the rate dollar/yen grew almost by 100 points and reached a level 119.00.

 

There is a similar growth of euro/yen rate, which also after dip to a mark 160.63, grew by 100 points to a level 162.66.

Let's remind that the intrigue around yen strengthened after results of elections in the Upper Chamber of Japanese Parliament, which took place on Sunday. As a result the ruling coalition headed by prime minister of Japan Abe was beaten that can lead to political instability in the country.

We also remind that preliminary value of the index of industrial production in Japan for June made +1.2 % for a month, +1.0 % for a year, at the forecast of +1.2 % for a month, and the previous value -0.3 % for a month, +3.8 % for a year.

 

And another factor which also influences strongly on dynamics of currency pairs in forex, became a situation on stock markets.

Let's notice that on Friday the American stock market kept descending dynamics. Drop in stcok indexes renewed on Friday even in spite of the fact that they managed to take advantage of the positive report on gross domestic product.

Thus, GDP growth in the second quarter by 3.4 % against expected 3.2 %, supported bulls and profit taking. However on this background messages on intention Medtronic Inc. (-2.11 % up to $50.53), engaged into development of technologies for medicine, to get Kyphon Inc. (+21.86 % up to $66.51) for $3.9 billion, and also comments of the US Minister of Finance Henry Paulson who once again declared about his belief in the US economy, brought some positive.

 

While we still predict correctional growth of the European currencies against dollar. As inertia of decrease will be kept, that is why we do not exclude renewal of descending movement.

As a result, taking into account the situation, we suggest to be while outside the market.

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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