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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Statement of FRS Head Bernanke did not add optimism in a dollar coin box...

23:16 07/19/2007

Thus, instead of expected by many market players deep dollar favorable correction on a background of aggressive statements of FRS Head was the other way.

.

Let's remind that yesterday the main event is necessary to consider statement of FRS Chairman Ben Bernanke at the Congress. Addressing to congressmen FRS Head declared that the forecast on core PCE for 2007 made +2-2.25 % and +1.75-2 % in 2008.

Bernanke declared also that "as a whole the US economy will possibly grow at moderate rates in second half of 2007 and in 2008 rise will be accelerated a little up to a level close to trend".

 

According to Bernanke’s forecasts "employment will go on rising though, probably at slower rates than in previous years, as a result of more moderate growth of production and proceeding demographic changes which will lead to gradual drop in a level of labour participation".

 

However, unexpectedly for many Bernanke warned everybody that current problems of the market of the real estate can become more essential. Thus, despite statements that primary FRS goal is to decrease inflation, FRS Head added that decline of activity in the market of the real estate will prevent its growth.

 

As a result from all context of Ben Bernanke’s comments players apprehended only a negative that strengthened their pessimism and became motivation for the next sales.

 

And many experts specify that FRS concern about probable inflationary risks is quite justified, that last publications show.

So, the consumer price index in the USA for June made +0.2 % for a month, at the forecast of +0.1 % for a month, and the previous value of +0.7 % for a month. And the consumer price index except for energy and food prices in the USA for June made +0.2 % for a month, at the forecast of +0.2 % for a month, and the previous value of +0.1 % for a month.

Growth of core index was supported by a rise in prices for residence, +0.4 % against +0.2 % the last month and also higher prices for second-hand vehicles, +0.4 % against +0.1 % in May whereas the prices for new vehicles remained at a former level. And decrease was observed for the prices for transportation -0.2 % and clothes -0.6 %.

 

And such significant parameter in a today's situation as housing starts in the USA for June also exceeded economists’ forecasts. We remind that housing starts in the USA for June made 1.467 million, at the forecast 1.455 million, and the previous value 1.474 million.

 

Thus building permits in the USA for June made 1.406 million, at the forecast 1.495 million, and the previous value 1.501 million.

Focus of attention of market players today will be turned to following publications:

Jobless claims in the USA for a week by 14.07 at 12:30 GMT. The forecast is equal to 312 thousand, and the previous value was 308 thousand.

Index of leading indicators in the USA for June at 14:00 GMT. The forecast +0.1 %, the previous value +0.3 %.

Philadelphia Fed index in the USA for July at 16:00 GMT. The forecast 13.2, the previous value 18.0.

But the main event today will be the publication of the minutes of FOMC  from June, 27-28th at 18:00 GMT. Experts believe that this publication will prompt them what further steps FRS will undertake concerning change of a monetary policy.

 

We recommend to buy dollar today from current levels against all European currencies (euro, franc, pound) as we assume realization of correction already up to the end of current week.

 

 

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