EURUSD, GBPUSD. Dollar is still under pressure.
22:16 07/12/2007

During European session today the euro again tested the next record mark of 1,3800 dollars, having made upward step from the previous record - the price of 1,378 dollars.

However at the American session bears won back downwards a little on good news on a labour market and not neutral data on the US trade balance.

 

Data over Europe supported euro today in the beginning of the European session. Industrial production in Eurozone in May was up 0,9 % m/m and 2,5 % in comparison with the same period of the last year, Eurostat informed. Economists expected that industrial production in May should have grown by 1,0% m /m and 2,3 % y/y. April indictors were revised up to - 0,7 % m/m and + 2,9 % y/y.

 

The strongest growth of production in the industry is noted in Germany and Italy. Growth of production in Germany is caused substantially by growth of production of durable goods and capital goods. In Germany in comparison with the last month industrial production in May rose by 2,0 %, in Italy - by 0,9 %, and in Portugal - by 3,8 %. Production in France was up 0,4 % after falling in April by 1 %.

 

Rise in total production volume was promoted by increase in energy output by 1,8 % compared with the last month after growth by 0,9 % in April. May growth of industrial production was the most significant since December of the last year. In 27 EU countries industrial production in May increased by 0,7 % in comparison with the last month and by 2,7 % in comparison with the same period of the last year.

 

Primary factor for euro bears became data on the labor market and trade balance.

 

The jobless claims in the USA for a week on July, 1-7th decreased by 12 000 and made 308 000. This indicator is the lowest almost for two months.

Economists expected that the initial jobless claims for a week on July, 1-7th should have decreased only by 3 000.

 

Four-week moving average of this parameter dipped by 1 500 to 317 750. Last data on number of claims specify that the situation with employment improved in the beginning of July after delay of employment growth in June compared to the last month. In June nonfarm payrolls in the USA were up 132 000 after rise by 190 000 in May. Average growth of employment since the beginning of year made 145 000.

 

Deficit of trade balance of the USA grew slightly in May up to 60,04 billion dollars due to a rise in price of import of fuel and other raw materials.

That was expected by the market, economists forecast increase in export up to 60 0 billion dollars, expecting that import would grow after reduction in April. Deficit of trade balance for April was revised up to 58,7 billion dollars from 58,5 billion. Department of Commerce informed that import was up 2,3 % or 4,2 billion.

 

As a whole market moods, which appeared after the publication of FOMC decision concerning rates, remain against the dollar. A number of important news over the USA - on retails, commercial stocks and consumer sentiment is expected tomorrow. If the general tonality of these news will be negative nothing can keep euro within the limits of a level 1,38.

 


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