| EURUSD, GBPUSD. FOMC decision has not changed a picture of market. |
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21:51 06/29/2007 |
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As well as it was supposed yesterday there were not surprises for the market from the Federal Reserve.
FOMC members made a decision unanimously to leave the rate of federal funds at a former level - at a level of 5,25 %. Thus, FRS leaves rates constant already the 9 time in a row for last year. This decision also means that norms of credit rates for commercial banks for consumer credits, rates of mortgage lending remain constant at a level of 8,25 %.
Until FRS fixed rates market of mortgage lending and accordingly the market of the real estate have to be under strong pressure of constant growth of rates. That as a result led to crisis of non-payments in credit sphere and stagnation in the market of the real estate.
In opinion of FRS high-ranking officials the current period of rate fixing can help restoration of the market of the real estate and stimulate home sales.
Concerning inflation the rhetoric of Committee members remained former - in brief comments to FOMC decision - the rate of inflation was estimated as "a little bit raised". Thus committee members once again emphasized that inflationary risks are now a priority source of attention for FRS.
For last 12 months the basic inflationary index (consumer price index) increased by 2 %. It is a little above FRS expectations, the Federal Reserve expected that the inflationary level remains within the limits below 2 %.
The basic fear is energy prices, on results of yesterday's session at New York stock exchange the oil price again tested a mark of 70 dollars a barrel. Petroleum prices were corrected a little, however remained within the limits of 3 dollars a barrel.
As a whole FRS estimate a present level of rates as optimum, despite a proceeding recession on the market of the real estate, high trade deficit, the economy shows signs of prospective growth. In opinion of Committee members rise of consumer expenses pave the way for such optimistic forecasts.
Restoration of economic rise is expected on results of 2 quarters of current year. According to experts’ forecasts GDP growth should be within the limits from 2,3 interests up to 3 interests. According to estimations of some analysts GDP growth of in the second quarter can rise up to 4 %.
In comparison with modest results of 1 quarter of current year (final data on GDP gain showed 0,7 %) it will be significant result. Chain Deflator demonstrated growth of the percentage indicator by 0,2 % up to 4,2 % in comparison with data for 4 quarter of the last year.
A condition of the labor market can be noted as the positive factor for economy. In May businessmen doubled number of workplaces, the unemployment rate remains steady in rather low limits - within the limits of 4,5 %.
As a whole market’s reaction to FRS decision was rather slack, quotations remained within the limits of a currency corridor. ECB and FRS rates at last meetings of Governing Councils remained constant - most likely in the nearest prospects the sideways will be relevant.
Next week there is expected the next block of important news over the USA, the first data of the monthly block - data on labor market and production.
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