| USDCHF,USDCAD Market’s reaction to FRS decision was inexpressive, players wait for publications of today's data... |
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21:33 06/29/2007 |
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So, as well as it was predicted yesterday the Federal Open Market Committee made a decision to leave the basic interest rate on federal funds at a former level which now makes 5.25 %. The decision was made unanimously.
As the given decision was expected by the majority of economists and consequently did not become unexpectedness for players, the market reacted to it quite reservedly.
In the final instruction it was noted that base inflation improved a little. Experts notice that this formulation replaced previous one, which was about that base inflation increased slightly.
Thus FOMC emphasized that "decrease in inflationary pressure should be shown more clearly". We remind that the high consumption level of resources continues to cause concerns of FOMC members in a situation around inflation. Besides the anxiety concerning "the inflationary risk can be not able to decrease, as it is expected" is still kept. As a whole prospects of change of monetary policy in future depend on an inflationary situation and economic growth. We remind that by results of the first half-year economic rise was estimated as "moderate". And FOMC expects the moderate rates of growth in future as well. Except for this economists notice that in comparison with the text of the previous communique, in the text of yesterday's document changes touch mainly estimations of inflation. As a result as FOMC in its yesterday's communique declares improvement of inflationary situation in the USA some experts assume that it will be a favorable signal for the market of exchequer bonds and on the contrary can become the factor of pressure for a dollar exchange rate. On the other hand, by to estimations of some experts as according to FOMC statement the risk of development of inflationary processes still remains high, FRS will not hurry up with drop in a level of the basic interest rates that can support a little bit a dollar exchange rate.
However, as reaction of the market to yesterday's FRS decision was extremely inexpressive the best indicator for definition of market moods becomes reaction to today's publications. So, at 12:30 GMT very important indicators will be published: - index of personal incomes in the USA for May. The forecast of +0.6 %, the previous value -0.1 %; - index of personal consumption in the USA for May. The forecast of +0.7 %, the previous value of +0.5 %. Later, at 13:45 GMT the publication of Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index in the USA for June is planned. We remind that the forecast is 58.2, and the previous value 61.7. And in the end of week session, at 14:00 GMT final value of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the USA for June will be issued. The forecast is 83.9 and preliminary value was 83.7. At the same time the publication of construction spending index in the USA for May is planned. The forecast is +0.2 %, and the previous value of +0.1 %.
Considering such abundance of publications of the important macroeconomic information, and also high risks connected with a subtlety of summer market, we suggest while to keep waiting position.
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