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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Before tomorrow's announcement of FRS decision concerning rates players do not hurry with opening of new positions...

20:05 06/27/2007

So yesterday on a background of expectations of FOMC decision about interest rates and the subsequent comments the basic currency pairs remained within the limits of quite narrow ranges.

 

So, the euro/dollar rate remains within the limits of a narrow trading corridor 1.3430-1.3476. And the pound/dollar rate the third day bargains close to psychologically important mark 2.0000.

And after recent decrease to a mark 122.79 the dollar/yen rate jumped then to a level 123.50. Experts notice that the situation around the Japanese currency still depends on a situation around world stock indexes - for example, possible falling of indexes, especially Asian will likely lead the market to purchases of the Japanese yen that is caused by return of the capital to initial assets.

 

Let's remind that yesterday's data on the US economy were weaker than forecasts and showed that in the market of real estate while there are no signs of improvement. And the index of consumer confidence Conference Board in June also demonstrated significant decrease.

 

So, at the forecast 105.8 the index of consumer confidence in June, dipped to 103.9 points in comparison with 108.5 a month earlier. Thus the index of current conditions was down to 127.9 from 136.1, and the index of expectations fell from 90.1 to 87.9.

And the index of employment assistance grew up to 21.1 points from 19.7 the last month.

 

Another important parameter among published yesterday – new home sales in the USA was also a little bit weaker than experts’ forecasts, expected 920 thousand, and fell in May by 1.6 % up to 915 thousand. Besides data for three last months were revised downwardly, in particular for April data on sales were revised from 981 thousand to 930 thousand.

 

Thus total amount of home stock reduced by 1.1 % up to 536 000, and at present sales volumes stocks will be liquidated for 7.1 months. The average price of the house in May made $236 100, having decreased by 0.9 % in annual calculation.

 

Pleasant exception in a yesterday's series of weak data was the published index of business activity Richmond FRB in June which for the first time for six months grew and made 4 points in comparison with -10 in May.

 

Nevertheless experts notice that dynamics of components of the index had the mixed character. So, for example, the index of new orders was up to 6 points from -13, the index of shipments reached 7 points in comparison with -7 a month earlier, and the index of the paid prices raised from 2.62 till 3.29, while the index of capacity utilization remained in a zone of negative values and made -3, wage index also decreased by 2 points up to 9. But the index of working week rose up to -1 from -9.

 

It is obvious that dollar "fell" too sharp, that assumes formation of some correction in favour of the American currency. Therefore we offer, being outside the market to wait realization of this movement then there are possible next purchases of the European currencies against the dollar.

At present to euro/dollar should be purchased from levels close to 1.3400, however at its break it is impossible to exclude recoil to a level 1.3330.

Dollar/franc rate is while under pressure, however we do not exclude recoil originally to a level 1.2350 and then and to 1.2400. These levels seems to us the optimal for sales of a rate.

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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