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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Players wait for publication of whole series of important indicators on US economy

19:26 06/15/2007

So, yesterday's data again were in favor of dollar. We remind that jobless claims in the USA for a week by 09.06 made 311 thousand, at the forecast 312 thousand. And the previous value was revised from 309 thousand up to 311 thousand.

 

According to the report published today inflation of producer prices in the USA in May was up 0.9 % that is above the average forecast of the economists polled by Reuters of 0.6 %.

 

Thus growth of the index except for energy and food was in line with expectations and made 0.2 %.

 

And in annual calculation total and core PPI grew by 4.1 % and 1.6 % accordingly. And food prices in May reduced by 0.2 %, thus vegetables prices showed significant decrease (-35 %) and fish prices fell by 4.5 %.

 

Energy prices were up 4.1 %, thus there was observed rise of all components.

Experts specify that growth of core index was supported by a gain of the prices for floor coverings (+2.0 %), cosmetics (+0.8 %), pharmaceutical production (+0.4 %).

There was observed reduction of computers (-2.0 %), cars (-0.2 %) and lorries (-0.1 %).

 

As a result after sharp fluctuations between levels 1.3278 and 1.3321 at the American session the euro/dollar rate was established in a narrow range above a mark 1.3300.

The renewed tendency of yen sales for currencies with higher interest rates influences actively on a situation around of a rate of euro or rather promotes its rise. We remind that yesterday the euro/yen rate rose up to a mark 163.78, and during the tenders at the American session the dollar/yen reached a level 123.10, maximal for last five years.

Today in Tokyo the next two-day meeting of Governing Council of Bank of Japan where as predicted the overnight rate was left without changes, at a level of 0.50 %, has finished.

 

But the main event today on which the attention of all market players will be directed, is the publication of the whole series of economic data in the USA. It is considered that the main in this series of data is the publication of consumer price index in the USA which after yesterday's publication of producer price index is also predicted at a high level that as a result can support a dollar exchange rate.

 

Let's remind that at 12:30 GMT the first series of data will be published:

- Consumer price index in the USA for May. The forecast of +0.6 % for a month, the previous value of +0.4 % for a month;

- Consumer price index except for food and energy prices in the USA for May. The forecast of +0.2 % for a month, the previous value of +0.2 % for a month;

- NW Empire State index in the USA for May. The forecast 12.0, the previous value 8.0;

- Current account in the USA for the first quarter. The forecast -202.7 billion euro, the previous value -195.8 billion euros.

 

Later, at 13:00 GMT the publication of TICS data is planned. We remind that the previous value of volume of purchases of the American assets by foreign investors in the USA for April was equal to +45.0 billion dollars.

Value of this parameter was always significant for FRS in its decisions, therefore market players usually always watch closely its publication.

 

Then, at 13:15 GMT two other parameters will be issued:

- Index of industrial production in the USA for May. The forecast of +0.1 %, the previous value of +0.7 %;

- Capacity utilization in the USA for May. The forecast 81.5, the previous value 81.6.

 

And in the end of this rather rich program at 14:00 GMT the publication of preliminary value of University of Michigan sentiment index in the USA for June is planned. We remind that the forecast of the indicator is 88.5, and the previous value was 88.3.

 

We forecast that after some dollar strengthening against European currencies, a process of its drop will begin. Therefore, after small dollar favourable correction we do not exclude growth of the euro/dollar rate and decrease of dollar/franc.

However, taking into account a saturation of today's evening with significant news we recommend while to be outside the market.

 

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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