|
On results of the tenders on Monday the basic currency pairs continue to remain within the limits of trading ranges.
Let's remind that moods among market players are defined by varied factors. Thus, yesterday's statement of a member of ECB Governing Council Welling was in favor of the European currencies, he specified that to tell about end of a cycle of interest rates increase in region is early.
Statements of other high-ranking European officials also assumed the further steps on ECB monetary policy firming.
On the other hand yesterday's weak data in France and Italy and today's inexpressive data over Germany and also unexpected intervention of New Zealand Central Bank by many market players, which led to sharp falling of a rate of the New Zealand dollar, put some pressure upon rates of the European currencies.
Let's remind that the index of industrial production in Italy for April was considerably below the forecast. So, the indicator made-0.8 % for a month, +0.8 % for a year, at the forecast of +0.2 % for a month, and previous value of +0.5 % for a month, +1.6 % for a year.
And the index of wholesale prices in Germany for May made +0.3 % for a month, +2.4 % for a year, at the previous value of +0.8 % for a month, +2.9 % for a year. As a result annual value of the indicator was minimal since November, 2005.
As a whole the tendency of dollar strengthening against the European currencies and the Japanese yen while holds good. Thus the attention of the majority of market players is focused on publications of data on inflation. We remind that the publication of the report on inflation in Great Britain is planned today. However, the main event of week will be Friday data on inflation in the USA.
The important event today will also be statement of FRS former Head Alan Greenspan. Players hope to hear statements which will prompt FRS further steps.
Let's remind once again that the dollar was supported considerably by expectations of the majority of market players that FRS rate will not be reduced this year. However, if Friday data show the next reduction in the indicator in annual calculation speculations concerning drop in the rate can renew again, that as a result will likely lead the rates of the basic currencies to appreciable correction to dollar.
We expect continuation of rise in the dollar exchange rate against the European currencies. We assume that the euro/dollar rate will decrease to key marks 1.3270-80 till the end of this week. However before the further decrease in the rate we expect some correction, which can achieve levels 1.3390 and then 1.3415.
While we recommend to remain outside market.


|