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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Attention of all market players is directed to Trichet's press-conference after ECB meeting

19:50 06/06/2007

Results of yesterday's trade as well as the previous days continue to surprise some market players by the inconsistency dollar positive news background and continuation of drop in its rate.
Let's remind that the obvious inconsistency was results of trade on Friday when after the publication of strong data in the USA the dollar could not renew its rise but decreased against all basic currencies.

Yesterday ISM service index in the USA for May was not only better than the forecasts but reached maximal level for last year.
The value of the indicator made 59.7, at forecast 56.0 and previous value 56.0.
Besides many components of the index also showed positive dynamics. Index of paid prices grew to 66.4 points from 63.5, employment index rose up to 54.9 from 51.9 and index of new orders in May reached 57.4 compared with 55.5 a month ago. Index of export orders rasied from 55.0 in April to 66.0 in May.

On this background players paid attention to "antidollar" events. American currency got additional impulse to sales after FRS head Bernanke declared that problems on real estate market could influence as a restraint on economical rise in the country.

However already today the next meeting of Governing Council of ECB on a question of change of interest rates in Europe (13) is on the center of all market players' attention. According to forecasts the refinancing rate can be raised be 0.25 % up to 4.00%. As this increase will be expected it has been already considered by current prices.
Therefore the players will pay more attention to statement of ECB President Trichet after the meeting. Market players try to understand what will be the further steps of the bank concerning change of monetary policy.
The results of ECB Governing Council meeting will be known today at 11:45 GMT.
The press-conference on results of ECB Governing Council meeting will start at 12:30 GMT.

Today two-day meeting of Bank Of England Monetary Policy Committee will begin today, its results will be announced tomorrow at 11:00 GMT.
According to forecasts of majority of experts that after Bank of England rose rate by 0.25% at last meeting on May, 10, 2007, tomorrow basic interest rate on repo transactions will be left without changes at a level of 5.50%.

Besides market players will direct their attention to issue of American economical indicators at 12:30 GMT:
- revised value of labor productivity in the USA for the first quarter. Forecast is +1.0%, previous value is +1.7%
- revised value of unit cost in the USA for the first quarter. Previous value +0.6%.

As a result we forecast further droop in the dollar rate vs. basic currencies. However after three-days decrease in American currency at least its consolidation is necessary, but correction to levels of recent resistance is more possible. For euro/dollar rate such levels are 3460-75 and for dollar/franc - 1.2215-25.
We recommend to sell the dollar/franc and the dollar/Canadian from levels 1.2225 ? 1.0700 accordingly with minimal number of lots.




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