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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Today all attention of players is directed to publication of data of US labor market survey for May

21:46 06/01/2007

On results of yesterday's tenders the dollar has a little decreased almost against all basic currencies. It is remarkable that it happened on a background of quite varied data on the American economy.

 

Let's remind that the most important indicator from published yesterday - the refined value of GDP index in the USA made +0.6 % for a year for the first quarter, at the forecast of +0.7 % for a year, and preliminary value of +1.3 % for a year.

 

As a result the indicator was weaker than economists expected, and after revision of growth of the indicator made only 0.6 % whereas there was expected decrease to +0.8 % from +1.3 %.

It is remarkable that core PCE index remained at a former level in +2.2 % whereas final sales also were not revised and made +1.6 %.

 

Data on jobless claims in the USA for a week by 26.05 could not support significantly the dollar. We remind that value of the parameter made 310 thousand, at the forecast 314 thousand, the previous value 311 thousand.

NAPM index also has not added confidence to the dollar, having shown decrease in May to 450.2 points from 457.6 a month earlier.

 

The dollar received short-term support only after the publication of data in the USA testifying to growth of business activity. So, Chicago Purchasing manager’s index in the USA made 61.7 for May, at the forecast 54.4, and the previous value 52.9.

 

As a result data issued then have only strengthened the tendency of dollar easing. We remind that help-wanted index in the USA made 29 for April, at the forecast 30. And the previous value is revised from 30 up to 29.

 

Construction spending in the USA made +0.1 % for April, at the forecast of 0.0 %. Thus the previous value was revised from +0.2 % up to +0.6 %.

However this tendency did not developed as focus of attention of market players shifted to today's publication of the US labor market survey.

We again remind that today at 12:30 GMT following data will be published:

- Nonfarm payrolls in the USA for May. The forecast 135K, the previous value 88K;

- Unemployment in the USA for May. The forecast of 4.5 %, the previous value of 4.5 %;

- Hourly earnings in the USA for May. The forecast of +0.3 %, the previous value of +0.2 %;

- Personal incomes in the USA for April. The forecast of +0.4 %, the previous value of +0.7 %;

- Personal consumption in the USA for April. The forecast of +0.4 %, the previous value of +0.3 %.

 

Then, at 14:00 GMT two other important indicators will be published:

- ISM index for May. The forecast 53.8, the previous value 54.7;

-          Final value of University of Michigan consumer sentiment index of moods of consumers in the USA for May. The forecast 88.6, preliminary value 88.7.

 

 

Let's notice that strong data on labor market survey in the USA and personal consumption and incomes for May will be confirmation of that the American economy is rising. And it, in turn, will reduce considerably expectations of drop in rates this\ year and will support the dollar exchange rate.

At the same time other experts, in particular analysts from Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., expect that data will be below the majority of forecasts. They explain these forecasts by the developed situation in the market of derivative tools.

 

We still expect continuation of the tendency of dollar easing. However, taking into account importance of today's publications we recommend while to adhere to temporizing policy.

 

 

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