USDCHF,USDCAD Despite current growth of dollar we still consider it as correction...
20:39 05/30/2007

Yesterday's trade was rather dynamical. A news impulse for growth of the European currencies in the beginning of trading day was data from Germany.

Let's remind that preliminary value of consumer price index in Germany for May made +0.2 % for a month, +1.9 % for a year, at the forecast of +0.2 % for a month, +1.9 % for a year, and the previous value of +0.4 % for a month, +1.9 % for a year.

And preliminary value of the harmonized consumer price index in Germany for May made +2.0 % for a year, at the previous value of +2.0 % for a year.

 

We also remind that some intrigue on forex appeared after correspondence dialogue of two largest European officials. Thus, the President of France Nicolas Sarkozy, having pointed out a high rate of euro that reduces competitiveness of the European manufacturers, suggested ECB to toughen a credit policy of bank.

And in reply to it Bundesbank Head Veber declared yesterday that competitiveness of French goods is determined not by manipulation of exchange rates but economic reforms.

 

Besides the main driver of market yesterday was Canadian dollar. We remind that Governing Council of Bank of Canada at the yesterday's meeting decided to leave the basic interest rate in the country, the overnight rate at a former level of 4.25 %.

 

This decision as a whole was predictable, for market there was unexpected the statement of the representative of Bank of Canada that the risk of inflation growth above a key level of 2.0 % for a year increased in the country lately.

Similar statements do not exclude that in the near future there is possible further increase of a level of the basic interest rates.

Let's notice that after these statements a rate the American dollar/Canadian dollar decreased by 100 points after the publication of the comments of Bank of Canada and reached a mark 1.0710, minimal since 1977.

 

As another "center of attention" was again Japanese yen. We remind that after information on increase of the stamp duty with stock trade by China the pound/yen rate also dipped almost by 100 points at the American session, and the euro/yen rate - from a level 164.29 to 163.36.

 

Let's notice that according to statement of the Chinese representative this measure was taken for restraint of speculative transactions and should not lead to negative consequences on share market.

Experts also noted yesterday sharp falling of oil world prices. We remind that oil price in New York dropped yesterday by more than 2.5 dollars, having reached a mark of 62.61 dollars a barrel.

 

However the main event yesterday was the publication of consumer confidence index in the USA for May. We remind that value of the indicator made 108.0, at the forecast 104.8. And the previous value is revised from 104.0 to 106.3.

As a result, in spite of the fact that to the end of day the dollar almost completely compensated the losses to the European currencies, we continue to consider these movements as correctional.

There fore we recommend, being outside the market, to wait for turn signals, then there are possible medium term purchases of the European currencies vs. the dollar.

 

 

 


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