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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Strong movements on market are not observed in absence of news over the USA.

18:55 05/23/2007

In absence of especially significant news over the USA eurodollar quotations are volatile near the bottom border of a sideways, at the line of support 1,3435.

 

The downtrend on dollar was stopped after release of quite good indicators over Germany, data of German research center ZEW.

 

ZEW index of investors’ confidence in industrial sphere of Germany raised up to the next tops. The wage-push since the beginning of year, which should have led to increase in production costs, did not prevent growth of business moods. ZEW index shows positive dynamics during last two months.

 

In May it increased to 24 points against 16,5 points in April and 5,8 points in March. ZEW President Wolfgang  Franz declared that economic rise of Germany is not due to recession of economy of the United States and that VAT increase could not affect it. «Rise in economy is provided by increase in the total number of employment and a good investment climate».

 

The estimation of a current business situation was also positive, corresponding ZEW index rose up to 88 points in May from 76,9 points in April. In ZEW experts’ opinion these data were the highest.

 

ZEW experts also forecast the further increase in economic growth till the end of 2007, the increase in GDP gain is expected by 2,3 % for a year.

Economic expectations of the Eurozone increased almost twice - corresponding ZEW index grew up to 22,3 points in May from 10,7 points in April.

 

Tomorrow the market expects data on the market of the real estate in the USA, we remind that this is the most thorny subject in economy of the United States: data of the US Department of Labor concerning new home sales and existing home sales.

 

Let's remind that according to this Department home sales in the first quarter 2007 dipped sharply and made 70 % from sales of the similar period in 2005 on peak of activity of the market of the real estate.

The market does not expect strong activity in this sector, experts consider that data of the US Department of Labor in April will remain at a level of the previous data for March. However, if these data are much better than expectations and week data on labor and durable goods orders are not contradictory the dollar can become stronger.

In this case it is possible to open short positions on euro and pound. Tactics in opening of orders remains former, stop as always is not closer than 100 points.

 

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