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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD After yesterday's dollar drop today recoil is possible ...

16:25 05/16/2007

According to yesterday's American releases inflationary risks remain stable that again increased expectations of decrease in the level of FRS basic interest rates in the third quarter of this year.
It became an occasion for yesterday's sales of the American currency over the whole spectrum of forex.

Let's remind that CPI in the USA for April made +0.4% for a month, at forecast +0.5% for a month, and previous value +0.6% for a month, +2.8% for a year.
CPI except for food and energy prices in the USA for April made +0.2% for a month, at the forecast +0.2% for a month, and the previous value +0.1% for a month, +2.5% for a year.

Let's also remind that such important indicator as NY FED index in the USA for April was also weaker than expectations, having made 8.0, at forecast 9.2 and previous value 3.8.

However the main factor in sales favor was publication of TICS data. Let's remind that volume of purchases of American assets by foreign investors in March made +45.0 bln. dollars, at previous value +101.5. The previous value was revised upwardly from +94.5 to +101.5.

The European currencies were supported by their cross-rates with the Japanese yen. Rise in world stock indexes are sustained by yen sales and other low-yielding currencies.
Let's remind that players of stock markets resort to loans in yens, francs and other currencies with low interest rates for opening of new positions.
As a rule, drop or deep correction of world stock indexes leads to return of credits and promotes Japanese yen sales, that is drop in yen cross-rates.
Today the euro/yen rate has reached 163.64, a new record high level for this pair.

Today at 12:30 GMT the data from the US building sector will be on the market's focus of attention:
- Housing starts in mln. in the USA for April. Forecast 1.475, previous value 1.518
- Building permits in mln. in the USA for April. Forecast 1.530, previous value 1.544.

Later at 13:15 GMT there will be issued two other important indictors:
- Industrial production in the USA for April. Forecast +0.3%, previous value -0.2%
- Capacity utilization in the USA for April. Forecast 81.5, previous value 81.4.

Taking into account high probability of deep recoil after yesterday's dollar drop we recommend to close dollar/franc and dollar/Canadian sales at current levels.
New sales of the rate will be possible only after the end of the recoil expected by us.


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