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On a background of absence of American news yesterday basic currency pairs remained in narrow trading ranges. Market's players did not hurry up with opening of new positions in the threshold of today's important publications. Let's remind that today there is expected the issue of statistics on the level of inflation in the UK and USA.
Thus, at 08:30 GMT there will be published three important economical indicators, which point out the risks of possible inflationary pressure in the UK:
- harmonized consumer price index in the UK for April. Forecast +0.3% for a month, +2.8% for a year, previous value +0.5% for a month, +3.1% for a year - index of retail prices in the UK for April. Forecast +4.6% for a year, previous value +0.6% for a month, +4.8% for a year - index of inflation "RPI-X" in the UK for April. Forecast +4.6% for a year, previous value +3.9% for a year.
Let's remind that despite increase in spread between pound and other basic currencies after recent rise in BE rate the British currency is still under pressure.
The euro rate is supported a little bit by expectations that according to forecasts of majority of economists in June ECB will raise the level of basic interest rates in Europe (13). It is significant that yesterday the Prime-Minister of Italy Prody, having noted that risk of inflation growth in Italy was not observed, declared about his concern by high rate of the single European currency. Let's also remind that today in the focus of players' attention there will be data on the US economy at 12:30 GMT: - consumer price index in the USA for April. Forecast +0.5% for a month, previous value +0.6% for a month, +2.8% for a year - consumer price index except for food and energy prices in the USA for April. Forecast 0.2% for a month, previous value +0.1% for a month, +2.5% for a year - NY FED index in the USA for April. Forecast 9.2, previous value 3.8.
The core event today there will be publication of TICS data at 13:00 GMT. Let's remind that the previous value of the volume of purchases of American assets by foreign investors in the USA for March was equal to +94.5 bln. dollars.
Taking into account importance of today's releases we still consider the probability of significant drop in the dollar rate vs. all basic currency pairs. Therefore we suggest to keep earlier opened sales of dollar/franc and dollar/Canadian at the current levels.


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