Thus after falling of a rate of single European currency on the eve, on Thursday during the tenders in Asia up to a level 1.3461, minimal since April, 12th, on Friday the basic currency pairs were in ranges at the European session.

Let's remind that on Thursday many experts estimated decrease as an example of market logic "buy on hearings, sell on the facts". So, as use in statements of ECB Head Trichet a phrase about "the increased vigilance" and also increase of the rate by Bank of England were already considered by the market in current quotations, after confirmation of these forecasts many players hastened to take profit on earlier opened "longs".

Besides the rate of euro and pound were under significant pressure of cross rates of these currencies against the Japanese yen. We remind that unexpected drop in the world stock markets pushed investors to closing of long positions and purchases of low-yielding currencies such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.

Another factor of yen growth were speculations around National Bank of China to constrain economic growth, in the near future a discount rate can be raised.

Economists pointed out that as yuan growth reduces cost of the Japanese goods for the Chinese consumers, thus, Japanese production would considerably increase the competitiveness.

We also notice that despite smooth rise in the dollar exchange rate within last three weeks last weak economic data in the USA did not allow to develop this growth into the confident trend.

Besides despite last forecasts of heads of Federal Reserve System they did not clear up a situation around FRS further steps.

On Friday evening the European currencies received unexpected support from growth of cross-rates of euro/yen and pound/yen after falling on the eve. We remind that the euro/yen rate grew on Friday from a level 161.07 up to 162.56. It is connected with increase of the European and American stock indexes that reduces risks of purchases of the Japanese yen.

Let's remind that according to Friday releases the producer price index in the USA made +0.7 % for April, at the forecast of +0.7 %, and the previous value of +1.0 %.

And producer price index except for food and energy prices in the USA made 0.0 % for April, at the forecast of +0.2 % and the previous value of 0.0 %.

Experts specify that in spite of the fact that the first index is at a level of the expectations, the second one was noticeably below the predicted level.

Other two indicators were also considerably below forecasts, and first of them reached a low for last seven months.

So, the index of retails in the USA made -0.2 % for April, at the forecast was +0.6 %. And the previous value was revised from +0.7 % up to +1.0 %.

Thus the index of retails less auto-sales in the USA made 0.0 % for April, at the forecast of +0.6 %. Thus the previous value is revised from +0.8 % up to +1.1 %.

Last Friday indicator was also weaker than the forecast and reached a minimum level since July, 2005. We remind that inventories index in the USA made -0.1 % for March, at the forecast of +0.2 %. And the previous value is revised from +0.3 % up to +0.2 %.

We still expect fast decrease in dollar/franc and dollar/canadian rate. Though the probability of small growth of these pairs seems to us quite high, however these movements should be perceived as correctional and most likely they will not exceed peaks of Thursday and Friday.

We recommend to keep opened sales of these pairs.