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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Dollar was under pressure in the end of week.

11:47 05/14/2007

On Friday the balance wheel of market moods again rocked aside euro against dollar.

 

This time the dollar tested pressure after an issue of the block of fundamental news over the USA: data of Department of Commerce on retails for April of current year, on wholesale prices and volume of investments into the industry for March, 2007.

 

Analysts notice that prospects of the consumer market look rather vague after the Department of Commerce published the report, which for the first time since October 2006 showed descending dynamics of sales rise. Retails were down 0,2 % in April after rise by 1 % in March. Weak data on retails demonstrated also net indicator of sales - the index of retails less auto-sales, it showed zero growth the last month against growth by 1,0 % in March.

 

 

Ken Perkins, the President of Research company RetailMetrics LLC names two reasons which affected general dynamics of buyers’ activity in home American market.

Consumers feel a rise in energy prices that reduces their activity in purchases. The second reason is deterioration of activity in the market of the real estate, high mortgage percents and also toughening of terms of opening of credits due to crisis of non-payments do not attract investors to the market of the real estate, that in turn reduces sales of houses.

 

The market expected decrease in sales so the international association of retail sellers UBS announced about drop in sales in 53 large shopping centers by 2,4 % in April.

 

Analysts note that slump in the market of the real estate which has already caused decrease in sales in the market of the real estate, starts to affect negatively buyers’ activity and especially concerning durable goods - furniture and cars.

 

At the same time according to Department of Labor one of the basic indicators of inflation - the index of wholesale prices demonstrated reduction in dynamics in April. PPI was up 0,7 % against rise by in 1,0 % March, core index of wholesale prices did not change.

 

Thus, for last 12 months core PPI grew only by 1,4 %. This circumstance can influence on FRS decision about rates, the rate of inflation is now a single constraining motive for stabilization of the rate of federal funds at one level - at a level of 5,25 %.

 

However as market analysts believe FRS tries to lower inflation to 1 % and to keep it in this stable range.

 

Mark Vitner, the senior economist of analytical company Wachovia, told that PPI indicators confirm FRS fears concerning inflation. Despite decrease in the basic indicators of the index the basic food prices were up 0,9 %.

«They are right in that», - Mark Vitner declared, - «inflation is still above than FRS wants to see. And the best that now the Federal Reserve can do is to keep rates at a former level despite sales falling».

 

As a whole market moods are now in a stage of balance, eurodollar quotations will most likely be in a currency corridor within the limits of a sideways till the end of the week.

 

 

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