| USDCHF,USDCAD After yesterday's events market comes to its senses and analyzes figures and statements... |
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17:49 05/11/2007 |
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Thus, events of this week would be enough for a month. We remind that on a background of negative American releases, beginning from the disappointing US labor market survey for April, published on last Friday, optimistical statements of FRS officials supported unexpectedly the growing dollar. Let's remind that FRS Head Ben Bernanke declared on Wednesday that he estimates positively prospects of the US economical development and expects continuation of growth of inflation. It is obvious that similar words reduce noticeably probability of drop in interest rates in the USA this year and support a dollar exchange rate against all basic currencies.
It is necessary to notice that unlike Bernanke ‘s words the statement of ECB President Trichet was not so optimistical. Though the market’s players are still confident that at June meeting ECB will raise rates by 0.25 %, however the probability of the further increase of interest rates in the Europe (13) remains vague.
Let's notice that after yesterday's increase of the rate by Bank of England, experts do not exclude its one more increase till the end of current year. Thus, it is necessary to recognize that yesterday similar hints from Bank of England were not sounded.
The factor of yen plays the increasing role now. We remind that next week there is expected a new increase of the rate from Bank of England and the market already "works off" this event. Besides slump of world stock indexes traditionally leads to return to low-yielding currencies that raises probability of purchases of the given currencies. As consequence of it yesterday at the European tenders decrease in cross-rate of euro/yen which has fallen today almost by 160 points from a level 162.99 to 161.42, began to grow. And the champion of drop was the pound/yen, which already "stepped" more than 300 points. The similar situation is observed as well in other more high-yielding currencies against yen.
The players keeping sales of dollar/franc and dollar/canadian, should hold these positions. There is a probability that the dollar/canadian "will reach" a mark 1.1147-55. It will most likely become a final point of rise. For the further decrease of the dollar/franc the core area will be 1.2130-40. Its overcoming will open a way for the further reduction.
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