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EURUSD, GBPUSD. Decisions of two European banks and Federal Reserve had no special surprises.

22:09 05/10/2007

Yesterday FRS left rates constant, today two core European Central Banks-ECB and Bank of England have announced the decision about rates.

 

It is necessary to note that this time there were no any surprises; all decisions were expected by the market. Only concerning ECB rates there was an opinion that European bank will probably increase basic rates. This opinion was the strongest after the previous meeting of ECB Governing Council when rates also were left at a former level, but in comments to the decision of Governing Council players have noted rigid rhetoric concerning the further monetary policy.

 

However the sharp rate of euro for last month which caused discontent of the European manufacturers because of drop in competitiveness of the European goods on the international market, spurred ECB not to hurry up with increase of the rate. As increase of the rate now would cause the next jump of euro against dollar.

 

The Federal Reserve has left the rate at a level of 3,75 %, FRS has been keeping it at this level during 11 months, considering that this stable level meets requirements of economy. Thus, as FOMC members consider risks of inflation and risks of the further delay of economic growth remain balanced.

 

In brief comments to this decision Committee members noted that the long period of stabilization of rates on mortgage lending which depend on the federal funds rate, will help the market of mortgage lending to be restored.

 

Let's remind that the market of the real estate received significant kick during permanent increase of rates when the Federal Reserve under the head of Alan Greenspan 18 times in a row during 2 years raised federal funds rates and accordingly rates of mortgaging obligation increased.

 

Besides in comments to FOMC decision there was not sounded anything new to the market. As well as at the last meeting in March it was noted that FRS would work further according to current economic situation.

 

Concerning economic situation Committee members consider that in long-term prospect it is necessary to expect slow rise that can be promoted by gradual restoration of the market of the real estate and the building industry connected with it.

 

At press conference on the termination of FOMC meeting Ben Bernanke noted that risks of inflation nevertheless remain overestimated, that can affect negatively, first of all, the labor market. According to FRS estimations inflation by 1%} exceeds 2 % a zone of comfort.

 

The group economist of Bank La Sale Carl Tannenbaum noted that now FRS is in not simple situation and in the gripe of circumstances, on the one hand a slack economic rise on results of 4 quarter, 2006 and 1 quarter, 2007, requires more resolute actions on stimulation of the industry from FRS. On the other hand pressure of inflation does not leave a space for Federal Reserve maneuver.

 

Tow hours earlier the European Central Bank announced that Bank rates remain constant, however let know that paves the way for increase of the rate to 4 %.

 

ECB President Trichet noted that the Central Bank is rather anxious about an inflationary background in a zone of euro and that sevenfold rise in the rate for last 1,5 years, since December, 2005.

 

The state Bank of England raised rates by 0,25 % up to 5,5 %, that also was caused by the increased inflationary background.

 

As a whole the decisions of these three central financial bodies did not influence essentially on exchange rates. The dollar strengthened a little within the limits of a currency corridor as investors waited from FRS hints on possible reduction in the rate in the future, and from ECB there was not excluded decision of increase of the rate. But these expectations were not justified. The dollar has got support on pair pound sterling - dollar that affected both positions of dollar and on other basic pairs. Tony Blair’s official resignation rocked a rate of pound downwardly.

 

As a whole the global dollar trend on downturn still holds good despite small correction. While we remain outside the market.

 

 

 

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