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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Having taken advantage of a festive subtlety of market, speculators "gamboled with all their heart"...

23:30 05/03/2007

So, today it is the day off in Japan therefore the financial markets in this country do not work.

Let's remind that despite holidays forex was rather volatile these days. On a background of publications of significant data, and a holiday subtlety of the market players, even opening positions with small volumes, "drove currency with all their heart", and both "bulls" and "bears" got it.

 

So, on May, 1st euro/dollar and pound/dollar, having directed downwards, "broke up" stop above levels 1.3660 and 2.0060. Having achieved inertia, the same rates overcame key levels downwards (1.3585-90 and 1.9890), again having collected stop-orders of "bears".

As a result now we observe flat up correction. The first target of this correction will most likely become levels 1.3633 and 1.9965 accordingly, and then after next down corrections - a level 1.3666 and 2.0056.

 

Let's remind that the index of factory orders for March in the USA made +3.1 % for a month, at the forecast of +1.5 % for a month. And the previous value is revised from +1.0 % up to +1.4 % for a month.

Economic data in the USA, which were published on Tuesday and Monday, also support the dollar.

Besides data about some decrease in a level of business in Europe (13) and Great Britain put certain pressure upon a rate of euro and pound.

 

Let's notice nevertheless that the main driver of the market in the form of purchases of dollar, euro and pound against currencies with lower interest rates. This factor also supports current correction.

 

But the main focus of players is already directed to Friday data in the USA. While the attention of market’s players is concentrated on today's data in the USA:

- Jobless claims in the USA for a week by 28.04 at 12:30 GMT. The forecast 324 thousand, the previous value 321 thousand;

- Preliminary value of labor productivity in the USA for the first quarter at 12:30 GMT. The forecast of +1.0 %, the previous value of +1.6 %;

- Preliminary value of index of per unit production in the USA for the first quarter. The previous value of +6.6 %.

And the main event today is the publication of ISM service index in the USA for April at 14:00 GMT. We remind that the forecast of value of the indicator is equal 53.5, and the previous value was 52.4.

 

As a result we recommend to wait for the end of down correction of the dollar/franc and dollar/Canadian, then purchases of these pairs become the optimal. Therefore we recommend while to remain outside the market.

 

 

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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