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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Probability of dollar-favorable correction is still of current importance

13:53 04/25/2007

Today it is a day off in New Zealand and Australia therefore financial markets in these countries do not work.

Let's remind that yesterday on the background of weak data of existing home sales and consumer confidence index the dollar was in sales over the whole spectrum of forex. The first indicator was not only below the forecast but reached low for almost last four year. And the drop in the volumes of sales in comparison with the previous month is the most significant since January, 1989.

Existing home sales in the USA for March made 6.12 bln, at forecast 6.40 bln. Previous value was revised from 6.69 to 6.68 bln.
Consumer confidence index in the USA for April made 104.0, at forecast 105.0. The previous value was revised from 107.0 to 108.2.

As a result the euro/dollar rate ahs reached today a mark 1.3650, maximal for last two years. And the pound/dollar rate grew up to 2.0059. The dollar/yen rate was down to 118.26.

Let's remind that main driver of currencies supporting European currencies against the dollar, is expectations of fast increase in the rates in Europe (13) and Great Britain.
At the same time last American statistical data raise probability of drop in the basic interest rates in the USA this year.

Let's also remind that the Governing Council of Bank of Canada at its meeting yesterday decided to leave basic overnight rate without changes at a level of 4.25%.

Trade balance in Japan for March made +1.634 trl. Yens, at the previous value +0.980 trl. Yens.

Main data today are:
- Durable goods orders in the USA for March at 12:30 GMT. Forecast +2.8%, previous value +1.7%.
- New home sales in the USA for March at 14:00 GMT. Forecast 900000, previous value 848 thousand.
Taking into account closeness of important levels of resistance we recommend while to adhere to temporizing policy. Probability of significant dollar-favorable correction seems to us quite ripen.


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