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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Euro reached three-year record mark and is approaching absolute historical top.

13:38 04/17/2007

On Monday there was observed the next three-year top on the euro - 1,3575, last time the euro reached this level in December, 2004.

At summit of Ministers of Finance and Heads of Central Banks of G7 in Washington contrary to expectations a question about sharp strengthening of euro vs. the dollar was not seem so thorny for EU representatives as it was three years ago in the same situation when the euro rate to the dollar reached the levels equal to current levels.

Unlike the situation of the end of 2004 requirements to limit dollar falling to euro were not so tough among European representatives as strong economical rise in Eurozone supports export growth in the USA and other countries.

To opinion of experts of International Monetary Fund and World Bank which representatives also took part in the summit, among G7 countries the strongest rise is observed in Great Britain ( 2,9% of gain), then countries if Eurozone - France (2%), Italy (1,8%), Germany (1,8%). On the other hand according to IMF and WB in the USA there is predicted a significant slowdown of rise from 3,3% in 2006 to 2,2% in 2007.

At press-conference in Tokyo the Prime-Minister of Italy Romano Prodi said that despite the euro rate grew quite high this rise shook up industry and took it out stagnation. At the same time at press-conference on results of meeting of ECB Governing Council ECB President declared on Thursday that the rate of the bank 3,75% is comfortable for development of European economy and there is a high probability of increase of the rate up to 4% for constraint of inflation rise.

On these moods new weekly trade session on Forex was opened with upward gap by 40 points on eurodollar to a level 1,3575.  However during daytime session on Monday the dollar managed to win back these losses and restore up to Friday top 1,3550.

The dollar was supported by data on retails for March and NY Empire State index.

Retails in the USA for March were up 0.7%, according to publication of the US Department of Commerce analysts expected rise in retails by 0.5%.
Growth of sales in March was maximal since December of 2006, when they were raised by 1.1%. This circumstance testifies to that consumers' sentiment and a situation in the US economy are not so bad as it was supposed.



It was confirmed yesterday after publication of NY Empire State index. NY Empire State index in April rose to 3.80 from 1.85 in March. Despite analysts forecast that the index would grow to 10.0 these data raised market's moods concerning the US economy.
"Economical conditions for business in manufacturing industry in New York in April were not changed", it is said in the report. Subindex of new orders rose to 3.94 from 3.13 in March, while subindex of supplies dipped to 8.66 from 18.54.
Subindex of purchasing prices was up to 40.48 vs. 30.23 in March.

As a whole despite small correction of uptrend on euro in favor of dollar market indicators hold on firmly to the single European currency. It remains only 100 points to the level, absolute record of quotations on eurodollar - 1,3670. After achievement of this level there can be a great dollar favorable correction, this level is a strong psychological level of resistance for traders. Therefore while keep off the market.

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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