Friday trade was unexpectedly rough for many market's players. Let's remind that after publication of data of the US trade balance for February, which was better than expectation the dollar took a pause to hurry up with rising.
A powerful spurt the American currency demonstrated after issue of preliminary value of University of Michigan sentiment index in the USA for April.

Let's remind that the US trade balance for February made -58.4 bln. dollars at the forecast 61.0 bln. dollars. The previous value was revised from -59.1 to -58.9 bln. dollars.
Two other important indicators were varied. Producer price index in the USA for March made +1.0%, at the forecast +0.8% and previous value +1.3%. Core producer price index in the USA for March made 0.0% at the forecast +0.2% and previous value +0.4%.

And indicator, which as a result determined the confrontation of "bears" and "bulls" - preliminary value of University of Michigan sentiment index in the USA for April was equal to 85.3, at the forecast 87.0, and previous value 88.4.
The index of current conditions dipped to 102.4 from 103.5 in March, while the index of expectations made 74.3 vs. 78.7 earlier. After some months of stability inflationary expectations grew to 3.3%.

It is necessary to note that after powerful rise at the American session after publication of University of Michigan sentiment index situation on the market on the background of fixing of intraday dollar "longs" changed to opposite - basic currency pairs returned to almost original positions.

Let's also remind that the euro remains supported by statements of the high-ranking European officials. So, on Friday the member of ECB Governing Council Mersh declared that the economy of Europe (13) develops steadily and even possible economic recession in the USA will not influence negatively on the European economy.

Concerning exchange rates Mersh noticed that realization of such script in the USA could lead the euro/dollar rate to increase by 10 %.

Head of International Monetary Fund Rato estimated a current situation in a similar tonality and assumed that the dollar exchange rate still can weaken.

We also notice that expectation of that at the meeting of Ministers of Finance and Heads of the central banks of G7 countries which took place on Friday would be stated the anxiety concerning significant easing of yen rate, were not confirmed.

Therefore process of yen sales for currencies with higher interest rates has renewed over all spectrum of the market.

Today in focus of players’ attention there are publications of the whole series of the important economic data. We remind that at 12:30 GMT three indicators will be released at once:

- Index of retails in the USA for March. The forecast of +0.4 %, the previous value of +0.1 %;

- Index of retails ex-auto in the USA for March. The forecast of +0.8 %, the previous value -0.1 %;

- NY Empire State index in the USA for April. The forecast 9.9, the previous value 1.9.

But today it is necessary consider the publication of TICS data in billion dollars in the USA for February at 13:00 GMT as core release. We remind that the previous value of volume of TICS data was +74.6.

Also it is necessary to pay attention to the publication of inventories index in the USA for February at 14:00 GMT. We remind that the forecast of value of the indicator is equal to +0.2 %, and the previous value was +0.2 %.

It is obvious that many currency pairs have reached the important levels of resistance. Deep correction is necessary for their further rise in favor of dollar. However there are no reliable signals for the beginning of such correction.

Therefore we recommend to continue to keep wait and see policy.