Main driver of last day again were positive expectations of rise in the basic interest rates in Europe. And though according to majority of analysts' forecasts ECB will try to increase in rate not today but in June many experts suppose that today's statement of Jean-Claude Trichet at press-conference on results of meeting of ECB Governing Council can strengthen these expectations.
Let's notice that data of minutes of last FOMC meeting according to which there is a risk of inflation could not support greatly the dollar.
Let's remind that all Committee members agreed that the main subject of concern remains the risk of that inflation does not reduce as it was expected.
The Committee members suppose that further monetary policy firming can be necessary for achievement of lower inflation level however on a background of uncertainty concerning prospects of rise and inflation the Committee decided that the statement can only point out the probability of the further policy firming.
In opinion of Committee members FRS steps should point out that further change of monetary policy would depend on the change of perspectives of rise and inflation.
Caution of last talks of FRS representatives about rates of the US economical rise did not add optimism to dollar bulls.
The early indicator of a condition of American currency during last days is the dollar/Canadian dollar rate, which during yesterday tenders dipped almost by 100 points.
Let's also remind that the US federal budget for March made -96.3 bln. dollars at the forecast -80.0 bln. dollars and the previous value -120.0 bln. dollars.
But the main event today will be ECB meeting. Let's remind that results of ECB Governing Council about the change of interest rates in Europe (13) will published today at 11:45 GMT. And at 12:30 GMT the press-conference starts.
Let's notice that the market's players get used to invariable sharp rhetoric of ECB President, therefore the key moment of his speech can become Trichet's traditional phrase about necessity "to watch attentively any changes". This phrase will strengthen greatly expectations of increase in ECB rate in June.
However there are experts who do not exclude the probability of rise in the rate at ECB meeting already on May, 10 in Dublin. They point out that the words "not to lose vigilance" or "increased vigilance" will be a strong signal in confirmation of this script.
On a background of renewal of rise in oil prices and also growth of euro rate up to two-years tops and decrease of activity the economists do not exclude that ECB can consider increase up to 4.00% as a guarantee of price stability.
We remind that we still wait for deep correction of the rates in favor of the dollar. We do not exclude that "start" for this correction can be soft statement of Trichet at press-conference on results of today's meeting of ECB Governing Council.
However we recommend to keep a waiting position.