Today due to Easter holidays financial markets in Europe (13), Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Switzerland and in other countries do not work. In the USA the stock market does not work today.

On Friday because of Good Friday the majority of the markets of Europe and the USA also did not work. We remind that on this background reaction to surprise US labor market survey was very emotional. Right after publication of this release the euro/dollar rate was down 60 points to a mark 1.3362, and the dollar/yen rate grew up to a level 119.36.

Experts specify that due to dull market players’ reaction to data was not so significant as it could be. We notice that these positive data reduced noticeably various speculations concerning decrease in a level of the basic interest rates in the USA, thus supporting a dollar exchange rate.

Let's remind that number of new payrolls in the USA for March made 180 thousand, at the forecast 130 thousand. And the previous value was revised from 97000 up to 113000.

Thus unemployment in the USA made 4.4 % for March, at the forecast of 4.6 %, and previous value of 4.5 %. And the index of hourly earnings in the USA made +0.3 % for March, at the forecast of +0.3 %, and the previous value of +0.4 %.

It is necessary to note once again that analyzing Friday releases and the subsequent reaction of the market, growth of a rate of the American currency on a background of such strong data on employment and the low level of liquidity in the market, nevertheless was quite limited. And right after publication many economists noted that the current economic situation in the USA still does not guarantee drop in FRS rates.

Thus many analysts name shift of focus of players’ attention from FRS meeting on ECB meeting next week as the reason of so inexpressive reaction of the market.

Let's remind that ECB is going to raise rates before the beginning of summer. Experts expect similar steps from BOE and RBA. As a result, spreads of interest rates will continue to put pressure upon the dollar not depending on whether FRS will reduce rates or will keep at a former level,.

We also remind that the index of inventories in the USA made +0.5 % for February, at the forecast of +0.4 %. And the previous value is revised from +0.7 % up to +0.6 %.

Taking into account importance of last movements in the market we suggest to hold wait and see policy.