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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Friday data on US Employment turned trend.

18:33 04/09/2007

On Friday dollar bulls received a quite good opportunity for revenge. Unexpectedly positive monthly data on employment in the USA enabled the dollar to win back losses of last ten days. Chances that FRS rate can be raised at June FOMC meeting have considerably increased.

     

In economy of the USA there was observed stronger revival in sector of the labor market than it was expected. In March growth of nonfarm payrolls made 180000 against the expected 135000 and revised data for February - 113000, and the rate of unemployment fell to 4,4 %.

It is necessary to note that the unemployment rate of 4,4 % again dipped to annual minimal marks, this level was noted in October of the last year, and the rate of unemployment fell below these marks last time 6 years ago, in May, 2001 when percentage value touched marks of 4,3 %.

 

 

More skeptical analysts noted that it is a good sign of "a soft landing" of the US economy, optimists consider that the economy passes a peak low point, and that in the further the beginning of a growth phase is expected. The proof of this is data of employment on building sector, manufacture and retail trade where there was observed hike of workplaces.

 

In building sector there were created 56000 workplaces after staff reduction in February by 61000. The markets of the real estate and connected with it the building industry which was the main headache for FRS during the last 2006 and in the beginning of 2007, show quite good signs of growth. Creation of new workplaces is the first sign of that in this sector of economy there is an escalating turnover. 

             

Analysts hope that revival in the building industry will affect favorably other fields of economy and if such rates are kept at least for 2 months FRS will not have other variants but to raise the rate as problems with inflation will become aggravated if rates of growth remain so high. 

 

It is necessary to add that according to the Federal Reserve consumers have not lowered their charges and volumes of holdings increased by 2,97 billion dollars in February in comparison with January that also puts additional inflationary pressure in the country.

 

As a whole Friday report changed market’s moods in favor of dollar, eurodollar quotations again returned to a zone of balance in limits of a sideways - between levels 1,3415 - 1,3250. Today on a background of absence of especially significant news over the USA we remain outside the market.     

 

 

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