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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Jobless claims data caused dollar falling.

11:47 04/05/2007

Yesterday the dollar was umder pressure after the issue of contradictory fundamental data, eurodollar quotations rolled to a top border of currency corridor – sideways, limited by 1,3415-1,3250. The ISM service index in March put pressure upon the dollar, index of sentiment- ISM index dipped and also data on production in Germany, which showed unexpected growth in February.

Rise in service sector of American economy dropped in March in comparison with previous month, index of business activity was down to 52,4 points from 54,3 points in February, while analysts on Wall Street expected a little increase by 0.4%/ It is the lowest value of index since 2003.

Service sphere is traditionally considered as one the strong part of economy, therefore decrease of these data added arguments to sceptics concerning prolonged slowdown of the US economy.

As experts of Association of Purchasing Managers’ consider ISM data show that slowdown of rates of rise, which began from the market of real estate and closely connected with it sectors of economy such as market of building materials and building industry, starts spreading on other economical spheres of the USA.

Data above 50 points demonstrate positive tendencies, hoever the same data of ISM in non-manufacturing industry, which share makes up to 80% of all industry in March, showed value below 48 points in March. Branches of economy covered by this index include: banking, construction, retails, mining industry, agriculture and tourism.

Survey of Managers’ Association demonstrated also that rise in new orders and nonfarm payrolls in March was at low rates.

According to specialists’ estimations rates of rise in the US economy were slowdowned in comparison with the second half of 2006 from 2.25% to 1,4 % of gain in the 1 quarter of 2007. On the other hand, data over Eurozone demonstrate already not the first time that EU economy is in rise.

Industrial production adjusted for seasonal variations grew by 0.9% in comparison with previuos month, concerning February of 2006 volume of industrial production in Germany increased by 7.7%, Ministry of Economy of Germany informed.

Economists forecast drop in production by 0.4%. Uptrend of industrial production must be kept taking into account optimistical sentiments in busines circles and also high level of factory orders, the Ministry noted on Thursday.

The market’s attitude against the dollar, which potential began yesterday on the market to the end of American session, became apparent today after the issue of week data on jobless claims. The number of initial claims for a week up to March, 31 was up 11000 and made 321 000. Initial claims for a week to March, 24 were revised from 308 000 to 310 000, the .US Department of Labor informed. Four-week moving average of initial claims dipped by 1500 to 315 750. The number of the secondary claims for a week to Marhc, 24 dipped by 25 000 to 2 492 000.

Despite that average indicator for last three months market’s reaction was a little bit emotional, euro quotations vs. dollar rose by 100 points after the issue of this news.

The dollar broke out a level of 1,3415 tested in the end of March. Traders begin to sell the dollar expecting weak data on core report of the labor market – the Employment report. If data are weak as the market expects, the euro will proceed the uptrend. Today it is not necessary to hurry up with entering the market, it is better to wait till tomorrow.

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