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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Today players have an opportunity to compare ISM service indexes ...

16:09 04/04/2007

Supported by positive expectations of data on home sales in February yesterday the dollar grew vs. all basic currencies at American session.
Besides the dollar rate was sustained by today's significant drop in oil prices and hike of American stock indexes.

Let's remind that the euro/dollar rate dipped to 1.3318 and the pound/dollar rate decreased to 1.9728. the dollar/yen rate rose up to 118.96, a maximal level for last five weeks, the rise in the rate for a day made more than 120 points.

However the main yesterday's event was meeting concerning rate of Australia Reserve Bank. Let's notice that majority of economists before the meeting suppose that RBA would leave rate without changes.
They also forecast that if there are no surprises the "kangaroo" can weaken a little bit right after the announcement of decision. However then on a background of positive expectations of next increases of rates Australian currency will continue its upturned. As a matter of fact, it happened so+

Next core event of the week, which attracts attention of all market's players will be a meeting about rates of Bank of England. Let's remind that experts forecast that the bank will not raise the rate, however unlike RBA decision there are such fears on the market that keeps sterling near up borders of big week range.

Today market's players will have an opportunity to compare the ISM service index of European economies, entering Eurozone and American and European indicators.
ISM service index in Europe (12) for March made 57.4, at forecast 57.6 and previous value 57.5.
And the same indicator in Germany, which is considered as a "locomotive" of Europe, made 57.5, at forecast 57.4 and the previous value 57.2.
ISM service index in the USA for March will be issued today at 14:00 GMT. Forecast is 54.8, previous value 54.3.

At the same time there are planned a publication of factory orders index in the USA for February. Forecast is +1.9%, previous value is -5.6%.

We still forecast significant rise in the dollar rate vs. all basic currencies. Though a situation for such movement has already ripened, however the reliable signals for its beginning are not formed yet. Easter holidays have also decreased the activity of players on the market that can lead to sharp unpredictable movements.
Therefore we recommend to adhere to wait and see policy.

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