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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Market’s daily review

11:47 11/29/2006

After yesterday's rise at the Asian session of the euro/dollar rate up to a level 1.3216, maximal since March of the last year, already during the tenders at the European session, the pair decreased to a mark 1.3149.

Experts point out partial closing of long positions on euro after the euro/dollar rate failed to keep above a strong level 1.3200.

 

Last days the euro rate was supported by positive macroeconomic indicators, and also optimistical statements of the European economists and ECB representatives.

So, last week despite concern of the European producers, officials of the region stated state an absolute acceptability of current levels of a rate of euro. It supports a little a rate of single European currency not only against the dollar, but also against other basic currencies.

As a result the euro/yen rate grew almost 100 points yesterday up to a level 152.30, record-breaking high for all time of euro existence.

Today's economic data in Japan and significant growth of stock index Nikkei support a rate of yen.

 

Preliminary value of the index of industrial production in Japan for October made +1.6 % for a month, +7.4 % for a year. The forecast was -0.3 % for a month, the previous value -0.7 % for a month, +5.2 % for a year.

The parameter was much better than the forecast and reached a maximum level since January, 1998.

Later the dollar exchange rate against yen almost completely corrected its decrease. Drop in a rate of euro/dollar influenced on it.

 

However already yesterday the tonality of statements of officials began to change. So, the prime minister of France declared that growth of a rate of euro recently influences negative on competitiveness of the European goods.

 

The consumer credit in Great Britain for October made +1.11 billion pounds. The forecast was +0.90 billion pounds, the previous value is revised from +0.92 up to +0.96 billion pounds.

The parameter was much better than the forecast and achieved a maximum level since May of current year. These data support a rate of the British pound.

 

It is remarkable that the dollar strengthened a little after week decrease even despite the weak macroeconomic data published yesterday.

 

The index of durable orders in the USA for October made -8.3 %. The forecast was -5.0 %, the previous value is revised from +8.3 % up to +8.7 %. The parameter was much worse than the forecast and achieved a minimum level since July, 2000.

 

The consumer confidence index in the USA for November made 102.9. The forecast was 106.0, the previous value is revised from 105.4 up to 105.1.

 

In economists’ opinion, the dollar was supported by following data. Existing home sales in the USA for October made 6.24 million. Forecast was 6.17 million, and the previous value is revised from 6.18 up to 6.21 million.

Growth of a parameter is observed for the first time for last eight months.

 

Richmond FED index in November climbed up to +7 whereas in October it made -2. Thus shipments and new orders also grew moderately in November after decrease the last month.

However, producers inform on slower growth of inventories and capacity utilization, but as a whole they expect faster growth of shipments, new orders and capacity utilization the nearest six months.

New orders in November rose up to 6 from -1 a month ago, shipments made 6 against -7 in October. The paid prices in November were up to 2.68 from 2.33 in October.

 

Participants of the market paid attention to the statement FRS Chairman Bernanke about presence of risk of inflation growth in the USA. Analysts consider that such FRS Head’s comments constrain a little easing of a dollar exchange rate.

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