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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Market’s daily review

20:09 11/28/2006

After significant decrease in a dollar exchange rate in the end of the last week, many participants of the market prefer to take a pause.

And today is the same, before statements f Secretary of the Treasury of the USA Paulson and FRS Head Ben Bernanke.

 

And yesterday the European officials continued verbal support of a single European currency. From last speeches it is possible to note the statement of the Head of Council of Economic Experts of Germany Bert Rurup, who declared yesterday in interview to Tagesspiegel journalists, that rates of growth of German gross domestic product can exceed the initial forecast of 2.4 %.

Let's remind that headed by Rurup group of five economic advisers of the government of Germany, having the honorable name "Council of wise men", earlier forecast that this year the German economy will grow 2.4 %. And after publications of data for the third quarter Council of economic experts revised upwardly its forecast.

 

Many experts pay attention to that in spite of the fact that some European companies are concerned about last hike of a rate of single European currency, Ministers of Finance of Austria and the Netherlands declare that they are not anxious about strong euro. The prime minister of Luxembourg Jean-Claude Junker stated yesterday the same point of view.

The single official who stated alarm by hike of euro was Minister of Finance of France, who declared that the current rate of euro would be discussed today at meeting of Ministers of Finance of the countries of the European Union.

The minister of trade of France said that last strengthening of a rate of euro is significant.

As a result, in experts’ opinion, easing of the American currency yesterday was limited by comments of the French Minister of Finance Terri Breton who declared that it is important to be very vigilant in connection with dollar falling within last several days.

 

Government officials in the majority, however, do not notice appeals of some European corporations to ECB to make a pause in a process of rate increase.

Let's remind that the Head of the European association of employers UNICE Ernest-Antoine Sejer said yesterday that ECB should take into account risk, which a high rate of euro poses for economic rise.

He also added that growth of a rate of euro represents risk for growth of labor productivity in Europe, and also worsens competitiveness of the European goods.

 

Thus a dollar exchange rate was supported by statement of one of heads of Liberal-democratic party in Japan Nakagava. In Nakagava’s opinion, the current condition of a national economy makes conversations on increase of interest rates unfounded.

As a result the dollar/yen rate has risen today more than 100 points from a level 115.38 up to 116.42.

 

It is remarkable that easing of a rate of yen against the European currencies proceeded after today's statements of executive of Bank of Japan Fukui that the level of interest rates in Japan should be raised slowly not to do much harm to economic growth.

As a result prompt growth of cross-rates of euro/yen and pound/yen promoted growth of rates of euro/dollar and pound/dollar. And the rate of euro/dollar rose up to a mark 1.3160, the rate pound/dollar grew up to a level 1.9460.

 

Let's also remind that the index of retail sales in Japan made +0.1 % for a year for October, at the previous value of +0.7 % for a year.

And an index of money supply ?3 in Europe (12) for October made +8.5 % for a year, at the previous value of +8.5 % for a year. An index of money supply ?3 in Europe (12) for three months, including October made +8.4 % for a year, at the previous value of +8.2 % for a year.

 

And Dallas FED index in November made -1.7 against -1.7 in October. Thus index of the paid prices showed decrease to 17.2 from 18.4 a month ago, index of shipments, meanwhile, also fell to 5.1 from 13.3. Index of new orders in November made -5.1 against -3.3 in October.

 

As a result the dollar decreases the fifth day against the euro that became the longest falling of the American currency for last seven months.

During this decrease the dollar dipped to the minimal mark since March 2005 as participants of the market raised expectations that FRS in the first quarter will reduce interest rates, and oil, as well as the majority of consumer goods, is estimated in dollars.

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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