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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Market’s daily review

11:47 11/27/2006

On dull after holiday market sharp wreck of a dollar exchange rate became unexpected for many players.

Dealers say that volumes of trading operations on Friday remained minimal because of celebrating Thanksgiving Day on the eve and the reduced working day in the USA on Friday.

 

In opinion of analysts, growth of euro and other basic currencies against dollar was strengthened yesterday by technical factors which specify overcoming of the important levels, and also work of a plenty protective stop-orders, located at key levels of resistance: 1.3000 for euro/dollar, 1.2200 for dollar/franc, 116.00 for dollar/yen.

 

Verbal support of a rate of euro from some European officials amplifies. For example, on last Wednesday ECB Governing Council member Klaus Libsher said that the euro in the future could argue with the dollar as the international currency.

Klaus Libsher also added that euro, taking the second place after the dollar as reserve currency, is more widely used in international trade and investments.

Besides Libsher added that economy of the countries of a zone of euro is now in conditions of a low rate of inflation, low interest rates and stable inflationary expectations.

 

Economists point out that to one of components of growth of the basic currencies against the dollar became rather high rates of economic growth of in a zone of euro, and also, connected with it increased probability of increase of ECB interest rates at the nearest meeting on December, 7th of this year.

 

Inflationary parameters in Germany were also above forecasts - one of leading economy of Europe (12), that also speaks in favor of toughening a credit policy in a zone of euro.

So, preliminary value of a consumer price index in Germany for October made -0.1 % for a month, +1.5 % for a year, at the forecast -0.2 % for a month, +1.4 % for a year, the previous value of +0.1 % for a month, +1.1 % for a year.

And preliminary value of the harmonized consumer price index in Germany for October made +1.5 % for a year, at the forecast of +1.4 % for a year, the previous value of +1.1 % for a year.

 

Forex players did not ignore statement of the economic adviser of the German government Beatrice Veder di Mauro who declared in interview to Reuters agency that euro strengthening or the further toughening of a monetary policy by the European central bank will not lead to delay of German economy.

In Beatrice Veder di Mauro’s opinion, rates are still not at a neutral level and the general risks for price stability are kept.

Pointing out these risks, the adviser emphasized: "In this sense, I undoubtedly see space for the further increases of interest rates".

It is necessary to pay attention also to that now experts forecast that the European central bank will raise the refinancing rate up to 3.50 % peer annum from current 3.25 % at meeting on December, 7th. It is remarkable that till now ECB representatives have not denied any way these expectations of the market’s players.

 

It is necessary to remember that a rate of the American dollar is also under pressure of the speculations concerning a theme of possible partial transfer of currency assets of some central banks from American in other world currencies.

So, players paid attention to the representative of the central bank of United Arab Emirates who last week acted with the forecast in such areas as trade, investments and tourism, the nearest 10 years the euro can leave the dollar behind.

However, it is necessary to note that the most sensitive for the market there were statements of representatives of the countries, possessing essential currency reserves.

Let's remind that the deputy head of department of the Government of currency regulation of China Guan Tao, pointing out necessity of diversification of parts of the assets nominated in dollars, called drop in dollar stocks because of decrease in a rate of this currency as one of the reasons to this step.

 

As a result the dollar/yen rate fell at the Asian session to a level 115.38, minimal since August, 21st. Subsequently the rate rose more than 80 points up to a mark 116.20. On the one hand, a dollar exchange rate is still under pressure of investors’ anxiety concerning possible transfer by the central banks of a part of their reserves from dollars in other currencies.

Now the steadfast attention of the majority of players is directed to China which possesses the greatest gold and exchange currency reserves. On the other hand, the dollar/yen is supported by growth of cross- rate of euro/yen. The euro/yen rate has grown today up to a level 152.47, record-breaking high for all time of euro existence.

Thus the euro/dollar rate grew at the beginning of the tenders in Asia up to a level 1.3164, maximal since March of the last year. Growth of a rate was strengthened by gradual work of stop-orders on euro purchase above levels 1.3100 and 1.3150. And a rate of euro is supported by increase in probability of rise in ECB interest rates on December, 7th, 2006.

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